The Great Replacement Dudes

The Omnivore has had a multi-day run-in with a person on Twitter who defends the fear that (white) people feel with the coming demographic changes--and finds being told by people (liberals) "Hey--those are the talking points of the neo-nazis, yo," to be offensive and speech-suppressing as a political tactic (if The Omnivore has him right, anyway).

Because talking to this guy on Twitter is hard for Twitter-related reasons, The Omnivore is going to try to write up what he thinks here--and if the guy, or anyone else--wants to weigh in, they sure can.

The Great Replacement Theory (GRT)
The Great Replacement Theory is the conspiracy-theory version of demographic reality. Specifically this: over the next few decades America will be minority white (2044 is the target point usually used). That's demographic "reality."

The conspiracy theory version is stuff like:

• The Jews / Liberals / Whoever are behind all of this! Soros is orchestrating the caravans, etc. (Twitter Guy doesn't, thankfully, seem to believe this--but a lot of people do)
• Our Culture Will Be Replaced! The reality is that by 2044 with interracial marriage, "the culture" will just shift the way it often has. 
• The Replacement is forcible and will be politically disastrous. White people will be relegated to second-class citizens! Black people (or brown, whatever) will vote away all our money! etc.

This theory is behind several of the mass shootings and is all the rage in white nationalist conversations. 

What The "Rational" GRT People Think

Twitter-Guy is rational--he doesn't seem to think it's The Jews. Dan McLaughlin (of the NRO) wrote a piece that took for granted that TGR is something reasonable people are afraid of--and getting screeds about "white genocide" is just the price you pay for having a shifting demographic! Oh, well, it's just a few more shootings!

The Omnivore has questions.

Immigration + Birth Rates = White Supremacist Talking Points

What Twitter-Guy wants is to focus on immigration. The idea being that libs want open borders (he really believes this) and they want open borders to turn Texas blue and whatever. Okay, that's over the top--but you can't blame him for not understanding that getting rid of ICE doesn't mean getting rid of the border patrol: he's a Republican.

The problem is that he is defending a theory--TGR--that ties birth rates to immigration and makes them both the "same problem." That's what the white nationalists do--because they are concerned about intermarriage and racial purity.

Now, Twitter-Guy holds that you can't really legislate birthrates but you can greatly reduce immigration. 

The problem is that this, alone, won't stop TGR--no, the demographics will still shift over time with just the current crop of legal immigrants (and some illegal) no matter what you do. We can see from Europe and Japan that birth-rates for the majority class are not likely to just "spring back up."

What About Just Immigration?

Saying you want to reduce immigration is fine--but if when you're asked why there are some answers that are not so good. They are:

1. We're full! We're not full by any structural measure.
2. They'll replace our culture! This is, again, sneaking in birth-rates in a way that suggest that suggests you think this is more than just another Tex-Mex restaurant  down the street. American Culture is not easily--perhaps not possibly--replaced. After all, we have Disney and Coca-Cola--there isn't a more powerfully branded culture on the planet.
3. They vote BLUE! This is the telling one--if you think immigrants vote blue but have no idea why they vote blue then you're telling on yourself. If you think it's because they "like big government" consider that the Party of Trump loves big government--just not for minorities.

So What SHOULD We Do About The Great Replacement?

Nothing. Keep letting people immigrate. Maybe slow it down a little if we think it's slanted towards the low-end side of the skill set. Maybe invest some more in helping southern border governments reduce their poverty and violence? Stuff like that. Treat the causes, not the symptoms.

BUT WHAT ABOUT MY CULTURE??

What about your culture? 

THEY'LL REPLACE IT!!

Tell me what that will be like--what do you think the world will be like in 2044?

THERE WILL BE FOOD RIOTS AND WHITE PEOPLE WILL BE HUNTED IN THE STREETS!!

Really?

NO--I DON'T KNOW--BUT IT'S SCARY!!

Why?

BECAUSE I DON'T WANT TO BE SECOND CLASS!! NOT IN MY COUNTRY!!

Yeah, maybe you should have started with that. I'd be honest.