How Would The Omnivore LIKE Impeachment To Play Out?

The Omnivore was asked a question from a Trump supporter: "How would you LIKE to see impeachment play out?" The Omnivore doesn't quite trust this--perhaps this Trumper is hoping The Omnivore will make predictions for grave-dancing purposes later if they don't come to pass--but: there are certainly some things The Omnivore can say without getting over his skis.

Let's set up some axioms:
1. The president interfering with his possible upcoming rivals isn't "Being concerned about corruption"--it is corruption. If Obama had wiretapped Trump for no really good reason other than "investigating to see if something was going on because of rumors" Republicans would have been (were) apoplectic.

What Trump was doing in Ukraine was identical in intent and similar in method to what Republicans believe Obama did to Trump (and were way upset about). So: PART 1 - That behavior cannot stand.

2. The Response by Republicans has been to lie. They are telling their base that this is a political hit-job cooked up by "Shifty Shiff" and that the complaint is partisan so they should not believe it. This is despite the fact that what Trump did and the transcript he released totally backs up the complaint.

The True Trumpaloo believes there are fine explanations for everything--and that it is just partisan whispers that make it look bad--but this doesn't change the fact that instead of defending what actions Trump took on the merits they are just "attacking the opposition." It's not a bad playbook--but if you think that abusing your office and then lying about it is cool then you deserve to be impeached.

If the Republicans don't believe he abused his office? They should defend on that. They aren't.

3. Trump Being Trump is great for the Trumpaloo. It's Awful For The Country. Trump's press conference  with the Finnish yesterday is a good point. His tweets about "civil war" are good points--and so on. Trump is always embarrassing--but now he's managing to make us look like idiots on the international stage. This isn't a good response to the proceedings and it needs to stop. If there is violence because some Trumpaloos think the Democrats are creating a coup? It's on him--and we have zero reason to think he'll stop obliquely encouraging an armed response.

So--having established that? How "should" this play out?

How It May Play Out
The most likely events seem to be:

1. Public sentiment moves a bit further against Trump as more revelations come out and he fights subpoenas (yes, yes, hon--he's going to). Maybe someone finally gets his tax returns or something? But it can't go far without running into partisan roadblocks--so maybe a point or two?
2. Productive things that could get done don't get done because Trump is pissed. This won't look good for Trump either and Pelosi seems to have pretty good messaging on that front too. But The Omnivore doubts it'll move Trump to do things that are good for the country. So there's probably an opportunity cost there.
3. Impeachment Eventually Moves Forward In the House. They interview the witnesses. There's a drip-drip-drip. Things get a bit worse. (NOTE: if they find out that Trump promised to cover up for MBS's killing of Kagoshi maybe a lot worse--but that's pretty unlikely).
4. The House Votes To Impeach. So long as the Dems don't fumble the ball (call that a 51% chance) they will get a positive vote on impeachment. Trump clearly "did it." There has been no real attempt to claim he "Did not do it." It's the article of impeachment--so, yeah. They vote and get their vote.
5. It goes to the Senate--McConnell says "vote right now--no trial." He doesn't want a trial and speeches. He'll settle for an up or down vote. So he calls it--it goes mostly along partisan lines. No removal.
6. The Public gets to decide what they think of this.

How It Could Play Out

The Omnivore thinks that this administration is like a pinata of criminality and stupidity. If you whack it hard enough to break, you'll get a deluge. In this scenario the Democrats "whack it hard enough to break" and one of a few things occurs.

1. Trump decides to throw Giuliani under the bus and he EXPLODES like a blood-blister all over everything. In this scenario Trump exercises his penchant for stabbing people in the back . . . unwisely. Giuliani has been saying "I did it for Trump, Trump knew, Trump wanted me to." If Trump decides to lie his way around that, Rudy could bury him. Very unlikely--but a popcorn level event. The Omnivore would love to see this for the drama! Assumption: Rudy knows where the bodies are all buried. Chance of Removal: 100%.
2.  Something Better. When staffers get called to the House to testify, someone from the president's inner circle goes and spills--what's on the other hidden phone calls? What's in the redacted spaces of the released transcript? Who knows. Whatever--in this case something worse than what we have comes out and people go hunting for it in the secret server or wherever. In this case the Senate has a real problem: there's something bad on the table--worse than going after Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothings. If this happens, McConnell has to do something unpleasant. Maybe he decides to hold the trial and the chips fall where they may. Assumption: Trump has blood on his hands from MBS. In that case, Chance of Removal: 24%
3. IT WAS A SET UP!! There is a possibility that it turns out that somehow the Whistleblower complaint is "a set up" or "hit job." Exactly what this means is unclear--the transcript is legitimate. The actions Trump took are not in dispute. What Giuliani was doing in Ukraine is well understood (as well as his lack of official position). So it's really hard to understand how the Whistleblower being outed as a partisan will make a difference--but let's say that everything collapses. Then, presumably, Trump gets a boost and. Assumption: Somehow the Whistleblower wrote the transcript. Chance of Removal: 0%
4. Civil War. There is a non-zero chance that several Trumpaloos out there in America will take Trump's rhetoric literally and / or seriously and will commit actual violence in the name of The United States of Trump-Merica. In this case, The Omnivore predicts it does not help Trump with suburban women. Assumption: Someone sheds blood to try to stop the impeachment process. Chance of Removal: 41%

There are probably others--but this is already TL;DR.

What Would The Omnivore LIKE To See?

The Omnivore would like to see Trump gone with the minimal national trauma. That probably means losing the next election in a landslide. That's not, however, especially likely. Would The Omnivore rather the president be impeached than win--or lose by a narrow margin prompting intense distrust of the electoral system?

No.

However--what The Omnivore would like to see is this: An investigation into Trump's foreign and domestic policy that looks to see what deals he cut and what emoluments he and his family has gleaned from other nations. What is in his tax returns? Has he said anything treasonous to Putin? Have any of his family disclosed classified information to the material damage to America to anyone?

If he's clear of any significant crimes on all that? He's probably good.