M-M-M-My Corona!

This is a better question than one might think: while you would not know it from casual paying attention, the Trump administration has been following a modestly steady cadence of taking actions against the virus (such as shutting down travel from China in January). The lack of testing material is partially due to the delayed roll-out and a failure of part of the test that was a back-up test that would help remove false positives / negatives.

Secondly, policy and regulation prevent everyone from just making their own test--but if, for example, the WHO test had been adopted more quickly it could have made up for lost time. It's also possible that savvy executive action could have lifted the restrictions on individual labs trying to make tests, it isn't clear when you would have had to know that the initial batch that the CDC rolled out was contaminated.

So, honestly, what is Trump's role in COVID-19 ction?

The Partisan-Hoax Divide
Let's leave out Trump getting rid of Obama's pandemic response team for a moment (while the presence of the team might have made a difference, The Omnivore doesn't know what precisely it would have been and likely neither do you). No--the first primary difference is that half the country believes that the COVID-19 threat is way, way, way overblown--by a media trying to "get" president Trump.

According to polling 54% of Republicans haven't changed anything they're doing--neither washing hands more often nor limiting travel. 40% of Democrats haven't made changes. Multiplied by millions of people that's a pretty big deal and it's a problem: under just about any other administration--either Republican or Democrat, most people would believe the threat was real and (if it was, say, Obama in office) that the end of the world was coming.

The Perception of Chaos and Incompetence
It is one of the president's duties to steward the nation through difficult times. It is incumbent on the incumbent not to panic or sow seeds of panic. The president, for example, is not supposed to make declarations of doom that tank the stock-market. This is true for either D or R presidents and it is part of the basic job: project strength, confidence, and competence--but also the appropriate level of seriousness.

Trump cannot manage that because, underneath it all, he isn't primarily concerned about the nation--he's concerned about reelection. So he wants you to keep going to work even if you feel a little sick--because otherwise stocks tank and he's out of a job.

Trump media like Rush Limbaugh, tells people it's like the common cold--and when Trump gives news conferences he says things that wouldn't be out of place on parody shows. This creates an image of no one at the steering wheel of the ship of state (speaking of ships, not wanting the perception of corona virus cases on land, Trump blocked Pence's evacuation and quarantine of infected cruise-ship passengers--thus keeping everyone on the ship making everything worse).

Having Pence lead the charge gave absolutely nobody confidence and led to the rise of speculation that Trump would use a bad corona virus outbreak to jettison Pence for Nikki Haley 'round October. Great.

Trump contradicting his doctor-experts on-air isn't good either. The impression of confidence is good and will help reduce counterproductive panic. The impression of incompetence will heighten things like store runs, bank runs, and other panic-driven secondary effects that can prove as damaging as the virus itself.

If You Like Your Doctor You Can Get Tested
Trump told everyone on TV they could get tested if they wanted to. Obama told people if they liked their doctor they could keep them. Both weren't true and both either knew it or should have known it. The outcry over Obama's Big Lie is silent on the right's over Trump's but the fact remains that Trump isn't just incompetent--he's also a liar.

He is going to tell you whatever he thinks will get him reelected and because he controls the messaging of the government no one is really willing to go against him. As a result we can't believe not just the guy in the White House--but anyone speaking officially.

This style of damage would be almost inconceivable under a Romney or even Bush administration.

Another Note: Corona Math

To put things in perspective, The Omnivore calls attention to today's NYT dispatch wherein one of the doctors "does the math." If we presume that across all age brackets the virus is 1% deadly, that means it's like 5% deadly for the upper age ranges. That's bad.

When you see a death, that means 100 other people are infected. Because of the long onset, that means that those people have been infected for three weeks. Thus: we're seeing a few deaths here and there now? That means thousands and thousands of people have it and don't know yet.

Unlike China, the US can't "lock down cities" just by say-so (well, they can declare martial law--but if that happens expect apocalypse). Better than China, our hospital containment is superior--but because of the unchecked spread of the virus it seems quite likely that the number of cases peaking at once will overwhelm our number of beds.

The median case here isn't millions dead--but it sure isn't good either. Once the hospital system gets overloaded then all medical issues become more perilous and lethal.

While there may not have been anything Trump could have done to dramatically stop the spread of the virus, he needs to start looking at rebuilding confidence in his stewardship ASAP. As things (statistically speaking) continue to get worse, the chance of a real panic and real bad-action on a mass scale may depend on our government helping to hold a frayed nation together rather than, as they have been, working to deepen those divides to drive turn-out.