The Biden Trump Debate

 

The Omnivore laid down his marker: "There won't be any debates." The theory was that Trump, having nothing to gain and everything to lose when Biden turned out not to be a doddering old fool who didn't know where he was would find some way not to participate in a debate.

Well, The Omnivore sucks at predictions--and yet: what we got last night? It wasn't exactly any kind of "debate." CNN's Donna Brash apparently called it a "Shit Show" on air and The Bullwark's Charlie Sykes notes that when Biden said "Shut up, man" he pretty much spoke for every American everywhere.

So why'd he do it? Why did Trump, with zero prep, go galavanting into a debate in such a way that it was just about guaranteed that he could not win it--at a time when the aperture for turning things around is slamming shut? The Omnivore has a theory.

He Believes His Own Hype

The smart money is that he can't afford to look like he's chicken--so calling it off is right out--but The Omnivore suspects that Trump had a slightly different affliction: he figured that he could just dominate his way to a win for his base and that Biden would, in fact, crumble under the pressure. He did, by certain standards, "dominate" the debate--and, almost for certain, his Base feels he came off like a Strong Man's Strong-Man. However, Biden didn't crumble.

Biden kept his cool--and while some form of superhuman rhetorical jujitsu might have theoretically planted Trump on his ass, The Omnivore thinks that Biden did spectacularly well in a couple of ways. Firstly, the split screen showed Biden laughing at Trump (going with the "clown" aspect is good for getting under the skin of a narcissist). This was probably better than any slap fight.

Secondly, Biden called him out in direct and raw terms--racist, the worst president we've had, unpresidential. Biden didn't hold back but he also didn't rant or rave--he said those things plainly and evenly. That might not change many minds--but Trump, giving his adversary a platform to say things like that was foolish.

The will it matter question still looms large for an election that has been historically steady. It may. It may not--but last night, at least, the betting markets saw what they needed to.

Frank Lutz's "undecided" voters were still mostly undecided but were universally appalled by Trump's behavior. They described him as a bully, a crackhead, and unhinged--to name a few of the adjectives they were asked to provide (Biden got praise but also got called Typical and "A politician"). Nobody said he was "Strong" or "Commanding." No, he just looked blustery and angry.

So The Omnivore thinks that this was actually a miscalculation on Trump's part--not a last-ditch hail-mary strategy or a "well, I'm just going to appeal to my base and fuck everything else" play. No, The Omnivore thinks that rump really believed he'd rattle Biden, make the "earpiece" fall out, and then romp him on the stage.

Fittingly, it was Trump who got romped.