Upheaval: The Mythology of Trump

The race, so far as The Omnivore can tell, doesn't really have fundamentals to change--the economy under Trump continued upward, possibly with some placebo help from deregulation and definitely with some juice from massive deficit spending--but otherwise, the electoral mathematics were either a mirage or steady-as-she-goes.

Whoever colored this graph needs to have their head examined

Now the absolutely obvious thing has happened: in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic, a political coalition filled with demographically at-risk members has finally rolled snake-eyes (after rolling all night at the craps-table in a haze of alcohol and cocaine) and held a super spreader event where they all (almost all) got it.

This isn't even self-sabotage: it's just straight out delusional behavior in the face of obvious and apparent facts otherwise. This is what the industry term "eating your own dogfood" means . . .or the more prosaic "making your bed and sleeping in it."

What Does This Mean For The Race?

The Omnivore predicted--on the basis of "facts and logic" there wouldn't be a debate--there was, at least nominally "a debate"--so why are you asking him? But since you are here, he's going to answer. The Omnivore's mistake was turning to "facts and logic" and assessing that no reasonable debate could be good for Trump and that he had laid the groundwork to bow out so he would avoid a lose-lose opportunity.

Lot of good "facts and logic" did us. Is The Omnivore right? (always).

So in order to answer this question we must simply dispense with "facts and logic" and go straight to the Mythology of Trump.

The Mythology of Trump?

The Mythology of Trump. You read that right. Trump has always been a very racist, very stupid idea more than a flesh and blood candidate. From the mythical Wall--which, like the dead/live cat is either built, not built, or being built triumphantly right now--to the Great America of yore (which was when you could say the N-word without getting canceled, The Omnivore is pretty sure) Trump was always more about how his followers perceived him than anything he actually was. Look at how Ben Garrison draws him:

Or how McNaughton paints him:

These are idealized visions of Trump as a fit strong man--and it isn't just them. During Trump's presidency he actually gained an inch of height (a miracle) making his (uh, questionably, low) body-weight move his BMI down into the non-obese range. The takeaway here is that Trump's myth is that of a Zeus-like daddy figure bringing Strength and Power to those who have none. 

This is important: The wearing of the mask looked weak, so he couldn't do it--wouldn't do it. Either.

The refusal to apologize or to back down--even in the face of lauding white supremacy? To his adherents it's just Strength (he won't bow to say Nazis are bad! See? No bowing!  . . . Yay Nazis?). He meets with Strong Men--real Strong Men who murder their people and rule with literal iron fists killing their enemies--and he gets along--not so with those namby-pamby effeminate (in some cases, actual women) on the European allied left.

So the number one element of the Trump Mythology is that he is Strong--Powerful--has the Endurance-and so on. Thus, we have our axiom: He CANNOT show weakness.

Therefore? He will not.

Bio-Toxic Masculinity

So what this means for the race: he will be healthy until he is either cured or dead (see The Death of Stalin). Thus--Trump World will produce ever conflicting stories while they pump him full of experimental drugs, hoping for a miracle cure (don't let him near any fish-tanks, guys) and prop him up for un-bronzed pale-face videos where he will project Strength no matter what the actual condition.

There is a reason this guy has alienated nearly every non-abused woman voter on the planet and will continue to do so--we know in real life he's a pussy (afraid of germs and hospitals, unwilling to do military service, and so on) but in his Myth, he can't be--so he won't be.

Thus, we will have Schrodinger's Candidate--both hale and sick, both vibrant and alling, both on supplemental oxygen and not--and we will have Pence, gamely barnstorming the country as a late-season  replacement for the actor we loved, while his base continues to pretend to love the VP since until POTUS dies for real? It's still "The Trump Show."

The telling will come when Trump, presumably, The Omnivore (guesses? predicts?) recovers (he's got the best medical care in the world, after all)--In 10 days (why 10? The Omnivore's approximation of 2 weeks) Trump will walk out of Walter Reed as strongly as he can--pumping his fist and, Orange Again, smirking for the cameras.

But something will be wrong: he won't quite be the man he used to be. He will still be short of breath at times. He will be slightly even more foggy-headed. He will be presiding over a party that has been stricken ill--some of whom, in that time, will have become very ill (Chris Christie?) and he will be the Sick President.

The Omnivore thinks he'll lose 3-5% on his polling as his people, now emotionally wounded by their Strong Man being weakened are angry and ashamed--humiliated and mocked by the libs for the humbling of fate and statistics their icon has brought upon them. 

Nate Silver shifts the race to Biden Likely to win Pennsylvania. 

That's the impact.