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| The Joke's On You, Liberals! |
He Would Win A Dakota
Some Democratic strategists who The Omnivore can't locate right now predicted in 2012 if Santorum was nominated he would win 'a Dakota' in the general election--that's all . . . and presumably not both. Santorum has good name recognition--but he polls badly. He has some credit with social conservatives, sure--but he's up against Huckabee and Cruz who both do that better.
He's despised by economic conservatives and was a Senator a long, long time ago. Plus, his big deal, being anti-gay? It doesn't seem like a winning strategy today, does it? FiveThirtyEight says:
So why doesn’t Santorum have a chance this time around? Much of his success in 2012 was thanks to a historically weak field. Santorum only rose in the polls after Rick Perry looked like an idiot during the debates, Herman Cain dropped out of the race because of sexual harassment allegations and Newt Gingrich got eaten alive twice in the invisible primary. Santorum was simply the last man standing — the only “conservative alternative” left.They make the case that Santorum is out in the Evangelical Boondocks with Huckabee--and Santo pulls 2% of that market while Huck pulls 14%.
The real problem with Santorum's run is that the first debate--the one that'll be watched--has been limited to 10 candidates--in order of polling. There are like two or three to fall before Santorum gets to the podium*. If he can't get into the grown-ups debate, he'll have to join the kid's table (the second debate) in the back of the clown-car.
Getting on stage when you make a mockery of yourself just by being there isn't pimping your brand--it's humiliation-based Reality TV. Santorum would need to pull some major ridiculous stunt to pop up in the polls enough to make the grade and--hey . . . isn't he hoping for an announcement boost??
Oh--and also? The bastard announced himself with George "Secret Clinton Donor" Stephanopolous of ABC News thus re-legitimizing him (kinda). The base will NOT forgive.
He's kidding himself. He's toast.
On The Other Hand . . .
If 2016 is the "last stand" for social conservatives and they manage to capture the field there's a possibility that Santorum could, once the debates get rolling, defeat Mike Huckabee for the nomination! For one thing, Santorum is Catholic and while the Catholic vote isn't a king-maker by itself, with the recent Ireland-Gay vote, Catholic Conservatives--and even some moderates--are feeling under assault.
Secondly, while Huckabee has charisma, he's also sold himself as a happy squish as far as a lot of people are concerned (and sold snake-oil cures for 19.99 while he's at it). Remember that Santorum did come in second last time--that's experience no one else playing has--not Jeb. Not Walker--not Rubio--not in a national election.
Next-In-Line isn't destiny any more--if it ever was--but Santorum has proven he can win states and that he can run a national campaign.
The Net-Net on Rick Santorum
Santorum isn't an idiot--but he may actually think he can win. He came closer than he ought to last time--and he may not think the current field is really all that strong (remember Perry the conservative titan? Oops.). The larger question, though, isn't about Rick Santorum: he cannot win a general election. The question is how will Cruz, Huckabee, Carson, and now Rick carve up the Santorum vote.
One of the SoCon theories from 2012 (conspiracy theories) was that they were all divided originally--and for too long--so they were diluted and sidelined and Romney 'ran down the middle.' While that's not really true (a united SoCon vote would not have unhorsed Romney) the dividedness is true--and it's true they didn't get "their candidate" (evangelicals were horrified by Romney).
So the question that we get to see answered is what SoCons do when they (a) realize it's maybe their last chance ever to pick a candidate (the numbers of demographics aren't going in their direction) and (b) then come to the ugly truth that even with a concerted effort they can't dominate the field?
What will they do when the rest of the GOP ditches them and picks Walker (not a bad choice--but not a true social conservative warrior)? Will they shut up? Or walk?
But What's In His Head?
Santorum is polling near the bottom of the pack that's polling at all. His draw on Pollster is 1.5%. That puts him ahead of Bobby Jindal and behind Carly Fiorina. After Bobby Jindal comes . . . Lindsey Graham and that's it. It cannot be news to him that he's not just a long shot--he's a long-shot through a solid wall. He knows this--is he just doing this to "increase his brand?"
No. Rick Santorum is the real deal: he's a culture warrior and this is a culture war. He knows that running for president will bring his message to the people (if he can just get on that debate stage) but he also is a True Believer: he believes his message will sell. Let's go inside his head and look:
The reason those fuckers at FOX can't get Me on that debate stage is that Huckabee is takin' up the whole left half of it! Let's see them try to keep me off: I came in SECOND last election. It'll EXPOSE them--I'll expose them and the people will LOVE ME for it. So do it--knock me off: I'll get up again. I always have.
I beat Google. I beat Dan Savage--and I'll beat YOU FOX News! Then I'm gonna knock Huckabee over like weeble-wobble and while that happy mother<bleeper> is bouncing back up I'll watch Jeb and Walker immolate each other, Cruz sink, and Rubio expose himself as a wet-behind the ears fake Catholic . . . Of course realistically Carson doesn't stand a chance either--he has no natural consistency beyond the evan--NO! NO!! DON'T GO THERE, RICK!! DON'T GO THERE!!
Carson's probably too old to make a real go of it.
The White House is commin'!
* Lectern
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