The DNC has not kicked off yet and already there is the Wikileaks DNC hack, the choice of Tim Kaine, and the rejection of a vote to remove SuperDelegates. All of this infuriates Sanders supporters which probably makes the entire DNC say "Thank God for SuperDelegates!"A group of Bernie delegates is trying to get 300 signatures (no more than 50 from any one state) to force a vote on a Kaine alternative.— daveweigel (@daveweigel) July 24, 2016
A Few ObservationsKaine gets exactly the kind of praise from Republicans that you want. He is also a bilingual Catholic politician with a good reputation. He's exactly the kind of "run it down the middle" VP pick that the strategically savvy Clinton campaign could be expected to make. He also apparently has good chemistry with the candidate and is both experienced and low-drama. Over all, he's almost unquestionably the right choice.
Secondly, Wikileaks has claimed a scalp in that Debbie Wasserman Schlutz, the head of the DNC, will, apparently, not be speaking at the convention. This is because of the leaked emails--they make it pretty clear that the DNC, as a whole, wanted Hillary.
This, as far as The Omnivore can tell, is dead-on-target: they fucking ought to have wanted Hillary. Sander's purported walk-to-victory was predicated on (a) enthusiasm from a portion of the Democratic voting base and (b) approval from the right who (reasonably) felt Hillary would be much harder to beat. We'll never know what a Sanders General Election would look like--but the current state of polling is not a good guide.
Remember: all those If-The-Election-Were-Held-Today polls show the current polls. But if the election actually were held today, there would have been debates, attack ads, and people educating themselves a hell of a lot more than you see now. In other words, unless you presume a "surprise election" the numbers we see right now are Apples. Election day is for Oranges.
Finally, The Omnivore thinks that Trump is going to have a developing problem: his last, best chance for party unity just shut down. Now, while he can pick up some more enthusiastic endorsements, there's never again going to be as good a forum for them. While Cruz may well have damaged himself, he's not going to get McConnell or Ryan on a giant stage to say better things about him.
The Democrats are probably unlikely to attain the kind of unity with the Sanders hard-core as they would like--but unless Sanders pulls a Cruz, The Omnivore doesn't see much chance for it to get worse (remember: The Bernie faithful already think that the election was totally rigged, that the DNC did unspeakable things to Sanders, that the Media were entirely in on it--and that, hey, he actually won the popular vote. At that point the only thing that could bring unity is a Unicorn).
Tomorrow the DNC kicks off--and after that comes the first set of important, really meaningful polls: at that point the cake is largely baked.
We'll be watching.