Santorum WINS! Brokered Convention Disaster?

I'll say this for Santorum: when the chips are really down, he delivers. Santorum taking both continental states last night wasn't big news. Mitt Romney winning Hawaii certainly wasn't news at all. Gingrich winning nothing was kinda news--the spin is that "this makes no difference." No, what was news was Mitt Romney finishing third in both Alabama and Mississippi. As the RCP article puts it: Doubts on Romney's Conservativism help Santorum in the South.

Is that code for Mormon? (Link: Santorum supporter calls on Romney to renounce Mormonism!)

RCP Senior Political Analyst Sean Trende runs the numbers given what we know of current demographic trends and decides this chart shows the likely percentage of the vote Romney is going to get:


While I think that puts Romney over the top (with some Super-Delegates) sometime around June, I'm not sure. What I do know is that if you win, even late in the game, with numbers like 35% of the vote--and maxing out at 53% in left-coast, left-leaning California that's not so good. It's also clear looking at the final analysis that Romney is under-performing by a little bit (he got 45% in Hawaii and just took 29% in AL. He more or less made his numbers in Mississippi getting 30.3% instead of the projected 31).

I wrote after Kansas that everyone would be looking for a game changer--Santorum and Newt because their current trajectory doesn't get them close enough and Romney because while he ought to make it it's (a) very expensive and (b) brutal to do it the way he has been. So far we have not seen a major change in tactics other than the rumor of a brilliant Newt-Perry team-up.

Going for Broke (or, well, Brokered)
The other possibility is that Rick Santorum decides that he doesn't need to do anything significant because "Rick Santorum: Brokered Convention Would Give Me The Nomination":

"I think you've been listening to math class and delegate math class instead of looking at the reality of the situation. The reality of the situation is that it's going to be very difficult for anyone to get to the number of delegates that is necessary to win with the majority at the convention," he said. "The only way, really, I believe that someone is going to get there is if the conservatives unite."

He also thinks a short general is better because it gives Obama less time to beat up their candidate:

We want [the general] to be a short campaign. We want it to be about Barack Obama. We don’t want the media and him to be able to beat up on our nominee, which they will do for the next six months if we have a nominee. The fact is, the longer this race goes on the better we are. And having to go to the convention, if that’s where it goes, I don’t think is a bad thing at all because I think we’ll come out of that convention with a conservative nominee and that’s our best chance to win.

This tactic is pretty scary: Romney, of course, says it would be a disaster--but he has a point:

This is a critical argument: Rick Santorum and those dreaming of a brokered convention are spinning a tale that almost certainly would, in Romney’s words, “doom” the Republicans chances in November. There would be a huge kerfuffle if political insiders picked someone other than the winner of the majority of votes cast in the primary. Moreover, the failure to fundraise for the general election and focus on the president for many more months would give President Obama a huge advantage. (“We sure as heck are not going to go to a convention, all the way to the end of August, to select a nominee and have the campaign working during a convention. Why, can you imagine anything that would be a bigger gift to Barack Obama than us not having a nominee until the end of August? That is just not going to happen.”)

In a brokered / contested convention:

• There would be immense pressure to just give it to the guy who is ahead by the most (it will be Romney) because, simply put, most of the votes have been cast for him
• There would be ridiculous counter-pressures to appease the base who would smell opportunity for a True Conservative(TM)--likely Rick Santorum. If these delegates decide to play chicken in an all-or-nothing play for their candidate it's unclear what would happen.
• A "compromise" candidate (Jeb Bush) would satisfy no one and would have two major problems: the first is that they're not vetted so you'd be risking a Rick Perry situation. The second is that they'd have funding problems. Oh, sure a SuperPAC can instantly have 100 million dollars to its name--the media, whoever the candidate is, will be saturated with ads. The problem is that the superPAC can't open operations offices in every state or otherwise run the ground game. After having spent millions of his own dollars, Romney is not going to give T-Paw his people--and if he did, who says "his people" would go?
• Finally there is the problem of wildcard actors. Ron Paul or Sarah Palin could prove unpredictable influences but wield major power. If Ron Paul had enough delegates to put Romney over the top ... and offered them for a VP slot ... what would happen? Would a Romney / Paul ticket make any sense? To anyone?

What Do I Think?
I think Michael Steele is the gift that keeps on giving (if you hate the GOP): The former head of the RNC (who was kicked out after his first term and plagued by scandals and gaffes) is the guy who set up these rules.

"I wanted a brokered convention," Steele tells me. "That was one of my goals." Why in the world would a party chairman desire apparent turmoil? To create excitement and shake up the party, Steele explains. So far this year, he has indeed succeeded in one regard: The Republican race remains unsettled. And that's unsettling many within the party's upper ranks.

Well, he just might get it. I also think that while a bit of "creative destruction" is a good thing--a lengthy primary is, to an extent, a good proving ground and experience for the general, more than a year of battle will take a toll no matter how tough these guys are.

Finally, I think that there is a problem that's coming Nate Silver's Rick Santorum +5% scenario (Rick Santorum exceeds his likely percentage by 5%) put Romney a hundred and thirteen delegates short of the magic number--but he can make that up in un-pledged and super delegates (of which there are 341). My question is this: if Rick Santorum doesn't think he can quite make the +10% numbers (which he would need to force a contested convention even with all the super-delegates against him) what might he do to convince those free-agents he's the guy? I can think of three scenarios:

• Marvel Team-Up: In Marvel comic books there was a title where two characters from different comics would join forces to fight crime. What if Santorum got Newt's delegates in the final days before the convention--it still might not be enough (the +5% scenario puts Newt + Santorum close--but not there). Still, it seems like the kind of move Newt would make if he didn't have anything else going.

• No In November: The Daily Bell suggests this strategy (for Ron Paul voters): 

It is time for a groundswell of Ron Paul supporters to quietly, respectfully but firmly make their position clear to the mainstream media and the GOP establishment. Simply put, "No Paul on the ticket means no vote for the GOP in November."

Ron Paul voters might make a dent in Republican numbers--but they might not. In any event, barring chaos-at-the-convention, Paul is not getting on the ticket. No one doubts, however, that evangelicals and the 'very conservative', if they stayed home, would cost the GOP the election. If Rick Santorum could make the case ... that that'll be the case ... could he sway the super delegates?

• Demolition Man: If, over the next two months Santorum can so damage Romney that although he leads in delegates he is toxic might that bring over the Super Delegates? There are a number of left-wing attacks that have potential to 'bring the toxic' (Bain Capital, Mr. 1%,  Dog-Gate?)--and the Mormon Strategy (which I will charitably not ascribe to either ideological division)--but could it be done? Could Santorum do it? Would he?

At this point, I have to say I'm impressed with Santorum's wins. I figured Gingrich would take AL--but for Santorum to lock both up increases the intensity of the race. To be certain, Romney came out of last night with more delegates won than his competitors (thanks Hawaii)--but to me that just emphasizes that we are looking at a race that has a likely outcome--but plenty of potential for upset.