Monday, August 27, 2012

To Bounce or Not To Bounce, That Is The Question

Although slightly rain-soaked and missing a day on the front end, the Republican National Convention is underway in Tampa. A great deal has been written about it--and there are plenty of places to go to get the story--but what's interesting about it?

What IS Interesting About It?
Here are the things I believe we should be watching for:

  1. Ron Paul ReLOVEUTION: Ron Paul's historic last gasp was squashed when they nixed his five-states necessary to bring a resolution to nominate him on the floor. Several groups are floating an idea that the delegates can do whatever they damn well feel like it--but no one expects much. Ron was asked to give a speech if they could control every word that came out of his mouth. He said "no" and he went on the record saying he didn't "fully" endorse Romney for President. He DID give an address Monday to a big crowd--but the (mostly missing) delegates were in front and his true believers were in the rafters. Can the Ron Paul army take this humiliation lying down? We'll see.
  2. Global Warming: Isaac did some damage. They had to re-arrange the deck chairs (change the schedule) but assure everyone the ship is fine. Lynyrd Skynyrd canceled. Will there be further fallout? They may lose Jindal who will, perhaps, stay home and manage his state that might get hit again. How much damage will this really do?
  3. Say You Love Me: Romney is rolling out his 2.0 version and has promised to make himself lovable (he is running the MS Lovable 2.0 software, in fact) and have a message EVERYONE can agree on (childhood should be innocent, cookies should be warm and tasty, and if there were any unicorns left we would all enjoy DELICIOUS unicorn burgers). Will this work? That's something to look for.
  4. Huckabee Overboard: After backing Akin--and backing him hard--Huckabee ... and none of the GOP also-rans got a speaking slot at the convention. Everyone else was sent to the Unity Conference ... outside the convention center (note to organizers: Google 'Unity'). Will there be any fallout from this Akin thing?
  5. The Message--SHE HAS ESCAPED: Twitter, YouTube, camera phones ... the message is out of control. Will there be any gaffes or off-message events at the convention? If there are, the odds are good we'll know about them before the spin-doctors can get the patient on the table.
The Big Question
The big question, though is this: what kind of bounce will Romney get from this. The general numbers suggest he ought to get something--and it should be enough to break his 1-3pt deficit. In other words, even if only transiently, this should put him in front. The Democrats should then have a shot at taking it back--and whatever events persist around 2wks out? That's the prognosis.

So that's what we get to watch for. Will the hurricane and limited coverage hurt the roll-out? Will they pull off a picture-perfect political-drama on the big stage? Will Ryan rip his shirt off and body-surf the adoring crowds? Can't wait.

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