How Do You Know When You've Lost?

So I'm on the phone yesterday and I ask the guy I'm talking to: "How do you know--know--that your political campaign's goose is cooked?"

Him: "What do you mean?"

Me: "I mean, like--is it when you have a speaking gaffe and the other side takes it and plays it 24hrs a day? Is that when you're in big trouble?"

Him: "I don't think so--"

Me: "How about when you get some really bad poll numbers in a key state?"

Him: "That isn't bad--but polls--"

Me: "Polls can change, right? All the time--and they can be wrong--so when do you know? What's the sign?"

Him: "You're gonna tell me?"

Me: "It's when the finger-pointing starts."

Him: "... Yeah--okay."

The finger-pointing in the Romney campaign has not quite stated yet. But some people are gearing up and flexing their fingers.Yesterday there were several conservative voices who were calling a possible Romney-loss the "end of the Republican party."

Speaking to the GOP, Ingraham said, "If you can't beat Barack Obama with this record, then shut down the party. Shut it down. Start new, with new people."

Rush Limbaugh notes that Romney could be "Elmer Fudd" and people would still vote for him against Obama:

Limbaugh said “Romney is not the perfect candidate. That does not matter,” he said. “Romney, the best thing he can do is remember this election isn't about him. He may as well be Elmer Fudd as far as we're concerned. We're voting against Obama.

Today, Limbaugh expressed more frustration at the Romney campaign. According to Limbaugh, Romney is treating Obama like “Mr. Nice Guy.” Limbaugh said Romney needed to go “ideological

Politico has a pretty good line-up of "free advice" Team Romney is getting:

• Take command of the wealth narrative: stop trying to be friendly and just--JUST--be Mr. Fix-It. Be like Gordon Gecko: he could fix things.
• Get detailed and excited about what you will do as president. To be sure Romney hasn't been exceedingly specific and some (Republicans) think that's hurting him. Maybe that's what you need to do to fix things (or maybe it's just handing ammo to the other team who, in R-Terms, are just better liars!)
• Stay on the economy--don't get distracted!! NO SHINY OBJECTS!! Sop engaging on the War On Women. Stop talking about the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare). Don't let the Dems control the narrative!
• Stop going to Wolfeboro: Romney's Richie-Rich New Hampshire home where he goes to hang. When he goes, away from the common people he looks like a wealthy, out of touch plutocrat. Get out there and mix with the common people, these consultants say: DON'T FEAR THE GERMS!!

What Do I Think?

I think that Romney's number one problem right now is that the press really is a lot more pro-Obama than pro-Romney. Now, I don't necessarily mean that in the conspiratorial way that a lot of Republicans do. JournoList aside (which was a real pro-Bama press conspiracy) I think that the problem is a lot subtler. Here's a Pew graph about negative vs. positive coverage:

Kinda Hard To Read--but It Looks Like Obama Got Less Favorable Coverage Than Romney ...

Here's what I think: getting good or bad coverage is NOT the same as getting the media to tell your story. Obama will get his message out with the help of the press. Romney, mostly, will not: he can do it himself, through venues like the RNC and ads--but so far he has chosen not to utilize those and the press will not do it for him.

The worst-case scenario is that, facing no good way to get his message out (and having, for example, squandered his prime-time slots at the RNC) if tempers flare any party in the game (Anybody But Romney's, Attack Full Communist, or Slow-And-Steady-And-The-Base-Better-Come-Along) will find support for their position. When that happens? The fingers start pointing.

And your goose is cooked.