Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Obama's No-Good-Very-Bad-Week


If you read the conservative blogs you will discover that:
  1. The Obama administration is covering up the Libya attacks since their story (that it is about a video) doesn't wash and they were caught off-guard on freakin' September 11th.
  2. President Obama shirked executive responsibility to go on The View and said he was eye-candy for the viewers: a nuclear level gaffe.
  3. He had a bad time at the Univision Hispanic forum.
  4. He gave a lousy speech at the UN.
  5. The race is dead even and Romney's polling suggests it's neck and neck.
  6. Oh, and the Republican party having failed to shut that whole Todd Akin thing down has now seen Santorum and DiMint endorse him (and, really, how far away is Santorum's abortion stance from Akin's?).

In the mean time ...

  1. Romney is crashing in the polls. Unless you go into fantasy land there is no silver lining here. Yes, it is possible the polls are wrong or skewed or that the over-all models are wrong or skewed but the degree and pervasiveness this would have to indicate to explain what we are currently seeing? It goes into Illuminati-World-Conspiracy territory. It also doesn't explain, for example, Fox News O+7 in OH).  It doesn't explain Gallup showing Obama at +6 Nationally today. It doesn't explain Purple Strategies showing Obama at +4 in Ohio. Simply put, if Fox News is part of your liberal conspiracy ... you have some 'splaining to do.
  2. Romney's price has hit its all-time low on the betting markets. This is noteworthy not because some "bettors" are maybe losing a few hundred bucks somewhere but because some bettors are maybe going lose millions of dollars on Romney. These "bettors," of course, are big-money Republican backers and the RNC--all of whom have other places in politics to put that money if they decide Romney isn't the horse to bet on. If the RNC decides to go after down-ticket races, for example, Romney's money could dry up: his advantage over Obama is only when you combine RNC, Romney, and Super PACs. Everyone but Romney might have other priorities than a 21.8% Million Dollar Risk.
What Does It Mean?
Well, it's the two narratives again.  Where the two universes collide, Jay Cost makes the case that polls are oversampling Democrats and that Independents just aren't on-board with the Obama-Bounce. Sam Wang calls this wishful thinking (at best). The suggestion that Romney-Money might go elsewhere, however is an interesting one: if anything is certain it is that TV advertising has not had much of an effect for Romney.

What Do I Think?
I think Republicans expecting Obama's bad week to take hold are going to be disappointed. Yes, it's the media--but no, not exactly the way you think. I mean, some of it is: I think it's pretty clear that large portions of the media prefer Obama to Romney--but you could (if you are liberal) think that is because Obama has the right answers and Romney does not. The problem with the Obama-Bad-Week narrative is that (1) Nobody cares as much about the Libya attacks as Team Romney. (2) Another Obama gaffe isn't likely to get any more traction than the last 500. (3) While Obama did get hit at the Univision forum he still probably has a better line for Hispanics than Romney does. The fact is that during the debates Romney went pretty hard-right on Immigration and over the long haul, walking that back is going to be hard. (4) No one cares what Obama said at the UN. Except Republicans. Average Americans won't care much. (5) The neck-and-neck theory is going to sound like a lie (or at least mighty spin) unless someone listens to a whole lot of Jay Cost. The only people doing that ... are Republicans.

And (6), having passed the 25th Pull-Out date, Akin is going to get hammered with every War-On-Women narrative the democrats can stuff on the airwaves ... and what's his defense?

Basically I don't think the Republicans are wrong about Obama having a bad week but I think that the basic narrative is that Romney is going to get hammered.

Edited To Add: The conspiracy theory also doesn't do anything for the Presidential Halloween Mask Poll which holds that whichever party sells more Halloween masks wins!
Obama Blow Out -- Scary!

No comments:

Post a Comment