Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Waiting for The Polling

Liberals are in a tail-spin over Obama's lead evaporating (note: he still holds a ~100 EV lead depending on who you ask) and Andrew Sullivan is declaring it over!

If you are waiting to celebrate (or cry) here's some advice: wait until Friday. Right now the majority of the polling we're seeing took place within 48 hours of the debate--these things take time to settle. It is definitely certain that Romney helped himself and Obama either shed his (massive) cushion or, possibly, became the under-dog. But none of these things are certain and poll-watching is not the answer ... poll averaging is.

For what it is worth, Obama is up 4% on the RAND poll and up about 33% on Internet betting. While those numbers are, yes, a significant improvement, if the question is "which campaign would you rather be" the answer is Obama's.

On the other hand, the conservative narrative has merit: the theory is that no one liked Romney--he was throwing his campaign away--and everyone knew it--but now, after flattening Obama, (a) the faithful are returning in droves and (b) Undecided had to choose between the (failed) Obama and the buffoonish Romney--now it's the failure vs. the fighter (or "the fantastic") and the choice is pretty clear: Romney breaks away and doesn't stop until somewhere north of 270 EV.

Could be--but we don't know yet.

On the other hand, we do see Democrats questioning the hell out of a Pew Poll that shows Romney at +4 and winning with women. They're complaining it's not indicative (too many over 50 voters!) that it's ... skewed. To be certain, I don't know if MSNBC is claiming that. And I haven't see conservatives questioning the poll. But the fact is that everyone is susceptible to this kind of thinking. PEC has a great post on it here.

What Do I Think?
I think Obama has his work cut out for him and I think it's telling that no one--no one--I saw came down on Romney for being, well, pretty moderate. He didn't go out there as a right-wing culture warrior and while he may not have entirely given up the narrative he did say stuff like 'all the good stuff from Obamacare is in my plan too.' I'd have expected some heat for that (Team Obama is simply calling it lies--but I would expect some discussion on the right. Maybe I just haven't seen it).

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