Who Won't Be President In 2016!

It's WAY too early for 2016 speculation--we don't know what'll happen in 2014 ... what the economy will look like ... whether Hillary is really running or not ... and so on. But in the spirit of wild, gross speculation there is something I can tell you: who will NOT be elected president in 2016. So let's do that!

Dr. Ben Carson

Dr. Ben Carson is an intelligent, articulate, accomplished man who delights Republicans by being (a) very religious, (b) outspoken against Obama, and (c) very conservative. He's also, welll, you can see it for yourself. He has retired from medicine and has hinted he'll go into politics. I'm sure he will--and he'll do well there.

But he will not be elected in the 2016 elections.



Why Not?
Carson will not be elected because he has never held office before and his first stop won't be the oval one. The GOP may have broken away from "next in line" but I don't think they're ready for never in line. Yes, Cain did well in the primaries--but that was psychotic. By 2016 the Republican party will either have gotten over its psychosis or they will nominate Carson (or someone like him--probably someone much, much worse) and lose.

Rand Paul

Rand Paul, son of Ron, held congress hostage for 13 hours revitalizing the GOP with his stories of innocent Americans sitting at a cafe getting blown up by drones. We know he can go 13 hours without a bathroom break which is probably close to what running for president feels like. He's also smart--and despite having (as the meme shows) endorsed Romney, he could probably carry his dad's base at least part way to the polls. He will not win the 2016 presidential election.

Why Not?
Paul will not win the 2016 election because despite his EVOLution over his father's positions taking a more reasonable centrist stance his views on foreign policy will still be an anathema to the base. Also, he's still basically a libertarian ... and that won't happen. He will be very, very popular with the under 30 voting block but will lose hard with everyone else. Remember that his dad, gaming the system as hard and as expertly as possible, didn't win a single state in 2012. That was the height of his power. Paul will win a couple of states--like Maine. Maybe, I dunno, Oregon. It goes no further.

Chris Christie

Chris Christie is one of the most popular Republican politicians alive. He wins easily in a blue state (Jersey) and comes off as a no-nonsense bad-ass who speaks truth to power ... even, uh, while he is power. He has personal charisma and definitely has the ambition to hold the highest office in the land. He even, as a governor, has the executive experience to do it--unlike the others here.

He's got bi-partisan cred that no one in the party even approaches. And, hey, by 2016 might we be ready for some bi-partisanship? We will be. But Chris Christie won't win the 2016 presidential election.

Why Not?
Was it his dreamy moonlight walk on the beach, arm in arm with President Obama just before Romney's disastrous election? Was it the man-love bromance they shared in the wake of Superstorm Sandy? Is it Christie's liberal views on things that might make blue-state Democrats (not to mention centrists across the nation) vote for him? No. It's not.

The Overton Window is the narrow range of ideas the public finds acceptable. It moves slowly and whatever is "within it" is what the public could accept in a president. Here is our state of affairs:

Sorry, Christie