Friday, January 24, 2014

Christie Down!

If You Reverse Them, They Make A '10'
Okay, so Christie's poll numbers finally dropped:
You Could Say They 'Reverted To The Mean'--I Understand Christie is Said To Be Pretty 'Mean'
So, uh, yeah. What does this mean?

Right Now? Nothing.
Look, guys, I know everyone--most of all conservatives--wants to re-run the 2012 elections (the Democrats think if they could do that they might be able to clean up the Obamacare launch) but there's, like, a whole 'nuther election between now and then and two more years (and, uh, 11 months ... and some days) between now and the next general election.

On the other hand, hey: it's fun to speculate.

So Let's Speculate
Right now Christie's numbers are not so much "bad" (as he is a Republican in a blue state) as they are not-good (i.e. polling that beats Hillary Clinton). This is worse than it might sound like though as Christie is the 'electable' candidate and if he isn't polling above HRC he isn't "electable."

You might say "But Romney wasn't polling above Obama, Omnivore and he was ... electable." Well, yes, if you say 'electable' with the proper tone of dripping condescension you're righty-o. The fact is that Romney was more electable than anyone but Rick Perry who exploded on the launch-pad. Electable, it turns out, is relative.

Romney was also not-a-witch (he was a 'heretic.' Not 'witch'--get it right).

Here are some things it "means."

  • The 2014 Senate races are all important to the Republican party. Why? Because 2010 was such a good year they are almost guaranteed to lose seats in 2016. Now, they should do well this year--but they have to do well enough. If they have a good candidate in 2016 that'll mitigate the damage, though. If they run, say, Herman Cain though? President Clinton II could sweep in with the presidency, the Senate, and ... who knows? Maybe enough of the House to make a difference.
  • Now Rand Paul is the front-runner. Say what!? Well, he has structural advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire. He can raise funds and guess what? His particular brand of crazy is coming into fashion what with NSA spying and Amazon delivery drones. Could Christie dropping back mean President Paul?
  • Huckabee just put his foot in his mouth with women. He said some stuff about how Democrats see women which focuses on free birth control. Now, depending on how you parse it, it could be that Democrats think women need birth control to control their reproduction--or, it could be, that women who are not controlling their libido (as they ought to, eh?) see Uncle Sugar (the government) as their solution to babies. Or something--but it wasn't good. The point is this: high Charisma candidates without the stink of crazy on them are in short supply. Scott Walker gonna have to come through or something.
  • The Liberal Media has shot itself in the foot by piling on too fast. The should have under-promised and over-delivered on Bridgeghazi. They didn't and now it looks like a partisan witch-hunt ... which helped Clinton I, let's not forget. Uh, yeah. Airtight.
What It Really Means?
What it really means is that Republican 2016 wannabes are just as caught up in the future as everyone else is and they're sharpening their long knives looking at the 'electable' slot that Christie may be vacating and trying to figure out how to get into it.That space? It's certainly big enough. Amirite?

Expect some frantic maneuvering if Christie's poll numbers fall further. 

It also means that more radical liberals are perking up: if there is a piece 'on the board' that nominally beats Hillary, they have to skulk around on Counterpunch. If Hillary looks inevitable, though, they can throw the kitchen sink at her and try to get Bill Ayers elected president ... or maybe Sister Souljah ... what's she doing these days?

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