Monday, May 26, 2014

The Solution To Elliot Rodger Types

WTF Is Up With Those Lips!? Botox?
We are only days into the news-cycle so take any 'facts' presented here with a grain of salt. Here is what we think we know:
  • Last night that guy above, Elliot Rodger, son of the assistant director for the Hunger Games series, went on a shooting rampage that left six dead, 13 injured, and him with a bullet in his head (from his own gun).
  • Before heading out in his black BMW to commit multiple murders, he left behind one in a series of ominous YouTube videos. It was entitled RETRIBUTION and laid out his plan to gun down various 'sluts' for the crime of rejecting him.
  • He claimed he was 22, had never had sex, and was rejected by any and all women despite being a 'great guy' and 'gentleman.' So he was going to gun the women down like the 'animals' they were. What a fella.
  • Before his rampage, The Virginator  apparently began with the writing of a 140pg manifesto, the legal purchase of three handguns and around 400 rounds of ammunition, and luring three men to his apartment to stab them (flippancy out of disrespect to the perpetrator, not the victims). Police think this was over a year in planning. A model gentleman, he certainly was.
For all of his apocalyptic hatred towards women, he was pretty bad at targeting them (this is a recurrent theme in spree killings: spree killers almost never get their persecutors, instead getting whoever happens to randomly cross their path when they set out). He set out, explicitly, to massacre an entire sorority and failed to kill any of them when no one opened the door for him.

Anything about motives and psychology The Omnivore could say about this guy, The Last Psychiatrist has already said better about a guy with a similar complaint. Read:
What follows is not exactly serious. The shootings were tragic and the shooter was a complete monster. The Omnivore doesn't currently have any deeper thoughts about that about the act. What The Omnivore did think about was where he'd heard this kind of thing before--and what one person suggested society could 'do about it.'

So here's what we'll do: The Omnivore is going to look at this guy's stated complaint because for reasons not directly related to his rampage, it bears looking into. It turns out there are a lot of people like him in theory--the people for whom lack of the love-life they think they deserve is a painful all-consuming reality. They call themselves 'the incel.' It stands for the Involuntarily Celibate (it could also be the 'love-shy'--which is functionally similar if semantically slightly different).

The 'Incel'

The Incel (as Twitchy discovered, hilariously) are a group to which Rodger belonged, even if he didn't claim the term for himself. They are the long-term socio-sexual losers who go through life unable to acquire a girlfriend (almost always) due to vague reasons they cannot understand (they blame it on bad looks, lack of money, etc., while noting that plenty of others with the same issues effortlessly get girlfriends and lovers). The incel identity (once you sign on to the term) is often marked by bitterness, misogyny, and even general rage.

A couple points of order:
  • The key point to being incel is that (a) you want a meaningful relationship: hookers can get you sex--maybe--but that's not what you want, generally speaking.
  • The reason it never works eventually gets attributed to (a) society (its decline), (b) women in general, and (c) feminism and feminist women specifically.
It is worth noting that in the incel / love-shy community they have not exactly claimed Elliot Rodger as one of their own: he was rich, 'good looking,' and had advantages most people in this state can only dream of. On the other hand, that post has heaping doses of blame for the horrible women of America and the liberal cesspool they breed in.

What Could Society Do About This Kind Of Thing?

Glad you asked. Nope, it isn't ban handguns. It's not do a better job of monitoring YouTube (although, guys? You can identify a Disney clip 30 seconds after it goes up ...). It isn't even better mental health. The guy was in therapy: You can't treat evil. Nope, there is a specific government-driven solution that has been proposed! Check this out:

It turns out one prolific Incel-blogger who wrote under the blog-name: GovernmentGetsGirlfriends (he has since changed the name of the blog) had proposed a way society could ease his pain! Here's a synopsis of it (another person put together from his writing):
1.) The government would offer women money to go on blind dates.
2.) Women would freely apply to the program, as would Incel men.
3.) Every woman would have a limit of 30 dates.
4.) If she doesn’t find a suitable partner during those 30 days she will be fired to prevent scamming.
5.) Women who are fired would be banned from the program for at least 1 year.
6.) Women who complete their 30 dates with or without a partner would be paid in full.
You see? Government Gets Girlfriends. Simple.

That is the solution from the incel community itself--so here The Omnivore asks: What Would It Cost?

The Omivore Voxsplains: What Would GGG Cost?

The Abnormal Girlfriend Act (the AGA, hence known as the 'ObamaFriend' Act) has two basic cost-components:
  • The website that facilitates incels and girlfriends signing up and being matched.
  • The cost to pay the girlfriends to go on dates. This must provide enough monetary incentive to cover all 50 states (it's a federal program) and the entire incel population.

The AGA Website

As we saw with Obamacare, the cost of launching a federal website isn't cheap. Fortunately, the ObamaFriend site is compared to Obamacare, very, very simple. For contrast, here is a high-level view of the ACA's workflow:

Here is a mock-up of the ObamaFriend system:

The key elements are:
  • Outreach, Web Portal, and Eligibility. These systems handle sign-up, enforce the rules (no dating for a year after 30 dates), and so on.
  • Identity Verification. Before anyone can be considered for a government sponsored date (on either side) we have to know who they are. This is likely done by integrating with the IRS. The users will provide private information that the system can check to verify identity the same way the ACA does.
  • FBI Background check. We presume that neither girls nor incels are going to be matched to each other if they have a criminal history. 
  • Prescription verification: Normal guys can't sign-up for government sponsored dates so each incel will have to have a prescription from a licensed psychiatrist. In the case of someone prescribing you a controlled drug (Schedule II), the pharmacy will call the doctor if there are questions. In this case, though, the system itself has to validate that the incel is on the list. This requires some other back-end system pictured here. In this view psychiatrists must enter the incel-patient into the system and the system can then check to make sure they are allowed to receive dates.
  • Matching is simple: it pairs incels with girls.
  • On the other hand, making sure the date happened isn't so easy. Firstly, there's a matter of definition: how long is enough? Is 20 minutes in a coffee shop enough? What if she never shows up? What if he says something offensive and she leaves? The solution here is a feedback system that verifies the date happened from both parties (maybe the girl gets a picture of him to upload?) but also routes complaints to an investigative agency for review. 
  • Payment system: the girl gets a government-cut check sent to her after 30 days.
The cost here is only partially that of the design and integration: any company considered to build the ObamaFriend website must have jumped through the hoops of signing up to be a government contractor! This pretty much doubles the cost.

The Omnivore did some rough estimates of the cost using a Function Point Calculator (The Omnivore estimated 48 pieces of distinct User Input if you have to know ... and 445 calculated Function Points) and then moved to the COCOMO II Cost Model for enterprise software using Java.

The cost for the ObamaFriend Website? $6968384 USD.

Doubled for Government contract work? about 14 Million dollars.

Paying The Girl Friends

The real problem however, is not building the site: 14 MM, even if that's off by a factor of 10 is chickenfeed for the United States government. The problem is this: what are you going to pay the girls? Firstly, we need to make sure there are sufficient girls to cover the population of languishing incels. How many incels are there?

Although some estimates put incels at a staggering 2% of the population this is probably way high. A better way to approach it is as a severe and unusual form of social anxiety disorder. Assuming that for most people with social anxiety disorder the idea of a date is their worst nightmare, it's possible that we are dealing with at most 5% of the social anxiety disorder population. 

This is probably high--but we can assume that once the symptoms are made official and the ObamaFriend program is in place, people will start signing up to use it. An estimate gives us 15 million people with Social Anxiety Disorder. That would give us 750,000 Americans. However, social anxiety disorder effects women almost twice as much as men and while there are women incels, the name of the blog this program came from is Government Gets Girlfriends so we'll stick with lonely guys.

This gets us to 187,500 lonely Incels across the US seeking Government-Issue Girlfriends.

How many girls do we need?

Most of the data supposes that the person in question needs to date around before settling down--but the reverse problem is going on here: Incels are looking for the one needle in the haystack that can live with them.

Facebook observers that 12 days before going "off the market" a couple's 'romantic posting' peaks (over 100 days). Let's assume that an incel in the program is going to need to have at least 24 dates (most of a single girl's 30-date allotment) with one person. Let's assume, given nothing but dead reckoning, that an incel will date 4 girls before finding one or giving up. This is 48 dates per incel.

How much do you need to pay the girl to do this?

Let's start with what we know: There are sites that, today, offer girls ('attractive') to go out with men ('generous') for money

The Omnivore signed up and attempted to see what the least attractive members were charging: it wasn't clear--but you can get a date for as low as between 5 and 50 dollars but even having signed up, there's no indication of which women were going for which.
Probably More Than 50.00: Rheess0166 is willing to Lie About How You Met. That's A Value Proposition Right There, I Tell You What
But this isn't the whole story: there's really no shortage of 'sugar daddy' sites where gorgeous women are willing to be paid to go out with millionaires. In this case, though, the incel has no such assets to offer (never mind that jackass up there actually was wealthy--that's totally besides the point. Totes. Trust The Omnivore). 

Furthermore, we assume that whatever mysterious force it is that makes incels un-dateable will be in-force even if they have a government sponsored girl on the other side of the table: in other words, statistically speaking, this will be the worst date of their life--and they will have to do it over and over 30 times to get paid. What's the cost for that? Well, for Chicago hookers, it's about 90 bucks.
Okay, maybe it's not the same: Your ObamaFriend isn't required to sleep with you--but take into account there is a price increase for risk (from the John) and risk (from the law) that isn't in play here.

We are going to assume that the cost per ObamaDate is $100.00.

This means that for the population of Incels, the total cost for 24 dates each (rounded to 30 for overhead) becomes: 535,500,000.00 USD. 

Total Cost: The cost for GGG is 549 Million Dollars.

Would This Work?

Of course not. The murderous impulses of Elliot Rodger were not, in fact, driven by lack of sex and, instead, by extreme narcissism and other issues. Don't take my word for it, click on The Last Psychiatrist links above. The whole idea of Government Gets Girlfriends is to offer an (absurd) solution to their 'problem' so that they can avoid taking responsibility for themselves.

Can you imagine what going on a date with someone who believes women are, almost literally, animals are? Would 30 of those dates actually be worth 3k? Consider this, the GGG guy has actually gone on dates. The girl initiated and they went out--and ... it didn't work out. He calls her "The Fatal One:"
FACT 10- TODAY I AM GENUINELY SORRY FOR NOT KILLING THE FATAL ONEThat’s correct. After experiencing even worse disasters than the one with her (which was already huge enough) today I am extremely sorry for not killing her and myself. It would save me and probably the world a lot of pain. In all honesty, if I were to want to harm anybody now the whole scene of killing her would look like a scene from a Dysney movie in comparison. But all this is due to the fact that I’ve not received proper help – and by proper help I don’t mean psychiatry.
Uhh ... yeah.

1 comment:

  1. this society has no idea how to raise healthy kids . one adult for every 30? kids in a classroom .
    and never doing anything useful . never learning basic skills .