Saturday, April 11, 2015

Hillary Clinton: What Is She THINKING??

Ready Or Not, Here I Come
Hillary Clinton announced her bid for President today in the move we all saw coming but, apparently, couldn't wait for anyway. Some people think she can't win. Other people think she can't lose! What's going on?

Inevitable, Ha! She's Toast!
Hillary is 'already fading' in the polls. According to a Quinnipiac Swing state poll, the entire Republican entourage has improved its standing against her since their last poll. She even ties with Rand Paul even leads her in Iowa--a state Republicans last won in . . . 1988. Beyond the basic polling math, Hillary is well off her favorability high of 66% back in 2010. In other words: she's way more popular not-running than running . . . and now she's running.

On the historical front, she's got an up-hill battle too. Obama won two terms and the same party winning three-in-a-row has only happened twice since 1828. Put another way, Hillary is no Martin Van Buren, is she?

Then there's the scandals: If Joe Biden is a gaffe-machine, the Clintons are scandalishious. Forget about Benghazi conspiracy theories, no one disputes she ran her own email server as Secretary of State in contravention of policy and maybe law. Then she wiped it, deleting the emails. She may very well have sold political favors for her foundation while acting as Secretary of State. And who knows what else will surface?

Finally there's the whole Coronation-Inevitable thing. Her PAC might be named Ready for Hillary--but is Hillary ready for a national campaign? She's not going to have so much as a sparring partner in her nomination. She's going to be thrust fresh-faced into the shark tank when the general starts. For a candidate with a problem in controlling the drama of her campaigns, this kind of "soft launch" is not what she needs to tighten her up, is it?

Coming off its first black president . . . is America really clamoring for another 'historic first'?

On the other hand . . .

Uh . . . Hillary's a Super Candidate
It's been noted that Hillary isn't so much "the only candidate running" as a kind of super-candidate that is simply pitching the electoral-equivalent of a shut-out in the primary field. Yes, the Democratic bench is weak (part of the result of a plan to win national elections at the expense of local ones playing out over a few decades)--but her lead is still historic:

Secondly, Hillary's dwindling positives? Uh-hum: they've come down, yes, but . . . they're still pretty darn high:
And, let's be real, if you're going to trail anyone in Iowa, Rand Paul is a pretty darn safe pick. That same poll? She leads Jeb in Florida by like 7 points. You can say the clown-car hasn't picked up steam yet--but if you do, you're still acknowledging it's full of clowns.

If you think she's not ready, consider that she ran--and basically tied--against the best campaigner modern history--perhaps American history itself--has ever seen. Despite what you may have read, she's in line to inherit a lot of his infrastructure and people. She held her own in a string of 26 debates in 2008 (the Republicans had 'way too many'--20--in 2012!) so we know she doesn't just collapse.

And really? She's got all the time in the world--and she's taking it. Her Sunday announcement steps on Rubio's apparent Monday-Announce strategy. Her plan is to build strength, build momentum, and use the luxury of her empty playing-field as time and testing rather than rushing ahead and stumbling. That's smart.

Oh--and the 'historic' 3rd Run For The Party thing? Yeah--do the words first woman president sound familiar? That's, you know, maybe historic too? Now you can say that Barack Obama had a stratospheric level of black support--which might not translate to Hillary. True. Black people are about 12% of the American population. Hillary wins fifty percent of the American population by a whopping 24 points. While men are more divided, for Democratic and Lean Democratic men her net-favorable is a stunning 58 points.

For Dem and Lean Dem women? An almost unprecedented +72. That's ... 47% of the voting populace right there, eh, Mitt Romney? She may in fact be likable enough.

The Net-Net On Hillary
The Omnivore is still holding that the race comes down to Jeb-v-Walker (with a chance of Rubio) lining up against Hillary. The odds are that unless Hillary gets take out by a scandal--always possible with the Clintons--she enters the general with damaged favorable ratings but a party consolidated behind her. She will run an average campaign for a top-tier candidate which will place her against an opponent with some form of weakness (squish for Jeb, probable charisma deficit and trouble in unionized swing-states for Walker, general inexperience for Rubio) and have at least even odds of winning.

On the balancing side of the scandal is the possibility that someone who is fundamentally weaker (Cruz, Paul, Carson) saps enough support from Walker--or does enough damage (the $31 MM Cruz Missile Ted's SuperPAC allegedly just raised) in friendly-fire--to give her an edge out of the gate. In other words, right now--a long time in advance of the general--she's as strong as she could possibly be. You can see that reflected in increasingly hysterical attempts to stop her by Republicans.

But What's She THINKING?
Normally saying that someone--almost anyone--feels entitled to the presidency is a nuclear-grade red flag--but in Hillary's case? It's actually understandable. She checks all the regular boxes: Lawyer, Senator, Secretary of State--and a few irregular boxes: First Lady. She more or less tied the primary with Barack Obama and has served or lived in the White House for over a decade--no one else alive can make that claim like she can.

She also believes in old-school Feminism (the proposition that advancing women to places of power is good for gender equality) and thinks it's past time that women ought to be allowed in places usually reserved for men. Here's a letter she received in the 60's from NASA telling her girls couldn't be astronauts:
When They Ask For More Funding, She'll Mail Them That From The Oval Office . . . 
In other words, she thinks, with some justification, she's earned it. Of course as emotional human beings . . . that's not the whole story. The Omnivore glances to each side and slooooowly removes his tin-foil hat, activating his telepathy to peer into Hillary's very mind!

Those motherfuckers had better be Ready For Hillary--it's on now. You want to get Vast Right Wing on me? I'm gonna make you wish you took the Vince Foster-way-out. You can hate all right--and lie--and spy--but I ran my own Spy Network--a real one--not your PI garbage sifters.

Come at me, bros: fire up those 'cankles' memes and tell me to get back-in-the-kitchen. Then post some whiny editorials about how you have trouble 'recruiting women' and how it's sooooo unfair that the War on Women thing keeps coming back. I hear that guy (Akin? I never bothered to remember his name) thinks he'll run again. Brilliant. 

I've put up with everything to get here--and now it's almost time. Ready for Hillary? Damn straight--I've been ready. It's been a long time coming and I'm gonna show everyone.

Oh, and Bill? I hope you enjoy the irony when I'm relaxing in the White House JFK pool with some hot little 23 year old stud Intern. I'll make sure he's got a blue speedo.

NOTE: This article was written Saturday before her actual announcement--so there could still be some big shocking revelation (The Omnivore only has so many hours over the weekend and Rubio is gonna pop Monday--the time!?? Where Does It Fly To??)

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