Don't count on it.
He Can't Win!
FiveThirtyEight delivers the goods with 'Why Trump Isn't A Real Candidate In One Chart:'
|THIS Is The Chart|
Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.Well, okay. ABC News brings us selected quotes from his announcement speech:
"I'm really rich," Trump said after declaring his candidacy today.
Trump made many promises throughout his speech today: "I would do various things very quickly. I would repeal and replace the big lie, Obamacare."
"I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me believe me, and I'll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall."
"Nobody would be tougher on ISIS than Donald Trump, nobody."
"I will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons," said Trump, who also said that he wouldn't allow Secretary Kerry to spearhead the negotiations.
"And I promise I will never be in a bicycle race," said Trump, referring to Sec. Kerry's biking accident in May.The DNC has weighed in:
“Today, Donald Trump became the second major Republican candidate to announce for president in two days. He adds some much-needed seriousness that has previously been lacking from the GOP field, and we look forward hearing more about his ideas for the nation.“On The Other Hand . . .
Donald Trump beats the Pope on Gallup's most admired list. People out there do like him--Romney even sought his endorsement. He's also larger than life and has nothing to lose (he could match Hillary and Jeb in spending and still have 7bn). If he decides to go balls-to-the-wall, couldn't he improve his standing?
While various candidates will be running to the middle or sliding to the right, Trump is going to do what he has always done: say what he thinks. If 2016 isn't a climate for that, nothing is. Trump may be thought of as a clown--but he's the laughing-at-you-on-the-outside kind of clown that no one wants to mess with.
Also? For all his not-a-real-candidate stuff, uhm--he's in the first debate:
The Net-Net On Trump
Trump puts a lie to the "We have such an awesome deep-bench" argument that the Republicans are fond of this cycle. He isn't a politician--not even in the Fiorina sense--and he's a bomb-thrower. The fact that he can beat out Kaisch, Jindal, and Pataki is, erm, telling. The fact that he can beat Carson and Perry is ... out-right worrying.
Now, there is a chance that Trump may run a real campaign--have issues--and so on--but his announcement speech doesn't make that look likely. It looks like he's going to dive into the scrum and start throwing hay-makers. With no need for funding and an appetite for the lime-light there are no controls on him.
That's why Romney got on stage with him in 2012: because pissing off someone with no filter and billions of dollars is a headache nobody needs. Donald is a dangerous wild-card (some would say . . . a Trump Card) in the GOP's 2016 deck.
But What's In His Head???
For Trump this is entertainment. Larry Ellison bought two military fighter jets. Donald is buying himself a 2016 presidential campaign. If you want to see what towering 1% inequality does to politics, this is it: vanity candidates. Romney was rich, yes--but he was nowhere near Trump-level. He was also an honest candidate.
Trump thinks it would be cool to win because he'd glass ISIS. If you think that doesn't have a certain appeal to people you don't understand people. Fortunately it doesn't appeal to all that many people--but it'll sure appeal to some--that's why he's polling well enough to get into the first debate and the only GOP female candidate . . . isn't.
What's he thinking? Let's look . . .
The Omnivore is getting some interference from the comb-over but . . . here we go.
I'm gonna moderate that debate--watch me. Whatever pipsqueak they pick to try to rein in The Donald is gonna get run-over like by a train. Hmm. I should buy a train. Run it around the country. Call it the REAL Straight Talk express. I could name the caboose after Santorum. Ha!
I should dress like Gecko from Wall Street. He's a popular guy. I should call him up--get him on the payroll. Yeah--I bet he'd be fun . . . oh, shit. Right--it's Douglas. Less fun. Okay--let's see I wonder if I offer Rubio 50k to drink a Polish Spring bottle right there on stage if he'll fold? I bet he will. Immigrant. No back-bone. Huh. I wonder if Bush would fold? I'll . . . criticize his suit. I bet he shops Men's Warehouse.
I should buy Men's Warehouse and offer a Jeb Bush line. Hey--that's a good idea. Cheap suit brands for everyone. I could make a profit on this thing! I wonder if I could merch the hell out of it. Man. I hope I win. I'mma give Isis a 2-for-one sale on nuclear tipped tomahawks. How do you . . . nuclear tip a . . . isn't that some kind of hatchet?? I should really read up on this stuff--but who has the time. It's not like Walker knows any of this shit anyway.