Saturday, August 1, 2015

A Quick Note On Trump and The Debates

John Weaver, senior adviser to the campaign of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, offered a different description of what the other candidates could face. In a tweet Monday, he wrote: “Imagine a NASCAR driver mentally preparing for a race knowing one of the drivers will be drunk. That’s what prepping for this debate is like.” -- The Washington Post
The Omnivore was told in email that if Trump maintained his popularity after softening his positions that The Omnivore would have to re-assess his rationale behind Trump's popularity.

The Omnivore doesn't quite think so:

  1. Trump's super-power is that he can do "signaling" better than any other candidate by virtue of not needing donors, not needing the establishment, etc. He can talk like a conservative-blog's comments thread and get away with it. Even Ted Cruz mostly can't do that.
  2. His support is, essentially, a gigantic "fuck you" (in fact, the biggest, classiest "fuck you" available!) to the establishment who over-promised to the base to get elected (Jay Cost writing in The Weekly Standard) and has been unable to make good on their absurd promises (The Omnivore will note that no conservative blogger that he could remember ever set their readership straight during the run-up to 2014--so, huh, Jay?).
  3. So long as there remains some ambiguity (Trump wants to let the "good ones" [immigrants] back in--does that mean, like, two people? Or 2 million?) then they can rationalize support.
So we're not quite there yet.

However . . . 

One Simple Trick That Could Get Rid Of Trump . . .

If The Omnivore were advising Trump, the advice would be this: Go For The Throat in the first debate. You'll have time to look like a statesman later--but your base doesn't want a statesman--they want someone who will bust up Jeb Bush's face until he looks like . . .  Harry Reid. The base wants a fighter and if you go up there and be polite that WILL be a "softening of your position" that, The Omnivore assesses, won't pass.

So that's our test case: IFF the Donald is polite and normal in the the first debate THEN we should see his popularity start to decline shortly after. THAT would damage his brand.


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  2. Does Trump make the other crazy-right whack-jobs appear more normal, more moderate?
    Does he shift the whole political framework towards the right?

    1. I think he shifts it right. They need to win a primary right now, not a general.