|Is Trump . . . Fading?|
It's actually an interesting question. Moreso than "How's Lincoln Chafee doing?" anyway. Let's look!
Donald Trump's current poll average:
538's list of pollsters?
That's not so bad. Let's see the most restrictive: Likely Voters.
What Does The Polling Tell Us?The key things here are not just what Trump is doing--but what everyone else is doing. Carson really is rising--and fast. He may not be a fluke. Fiorina seems to be burning out. Jeb is in real decline--and Cruz, despite savvy positioning, isn't really evidencing hidden strength. In other words, Trump's for real. Still.
Let's look at one more thing:
This is a media attention graph from the Atlantic. It tracks the time the candidates get on TV. Here we see . . . kinda the same thing: Trump in the lead--a drop--but a big of a pick-up, Jeb crashing to earth, Fiorina rising and falling back. No one cares about Rubio or Cruz right now . . .and Ben Carson? He's coming up.
Correlation is not causation--but a case can be made that Trump, so long as he remains on TV a whole bunch, is going to be a contender.