Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Trump Fades . . .

The long predicted decline and fall of Donald Trump has finally come. Perhaps it was his lack-luster performances in the debates? The atrocity in Paris making voters get serious and want someone with proven foreign policy chops? Or maybe it was Ben Carson's relentless niceness that finally wore him down.

Whatever the case, the pundits are finally proven right:
Oh, Wait . . .

Trump Falls In The Wrong Direction

For Trump to have his required fade by Thanksgiving it's going to require like poison turkey or something (if Trump is dumb enough to name Ted Cruz as his VP, Trump will be pushing daises moments after being sworn in).

On the other hand . . . Carson has fallen. Carson's arc, albeit high, looks a lot more like a not-Romney than Trump does. How come? Why would they be different?

The Hero vs. The Weapon

Carson just had something fairly unprecedented happen two of his advisers for foreign policy came out and said he was unteachable in that arena. This is (a) while he's running and (b) coming on the heels of a pretty big foreign policy flub. It's Sarah Palin-esque, really--or maybe more Usbeki-beki-bekistan (Herman Cain)?

The question though is: why would anything hurt Cain when nothing hurts Trump? Trump unleashes an unhinged rant? Goes up. Trump has no substance? Goes up. Trump could eat a puppy and he'd gain points. WHY?? And why doesn't the teflon apply to Carson?

The Omnivore has a theory. It's this: Carson's appeal is that he's a man of great character with granite moral convictions. For evangelicals (or, hey, just the very religious), finding a candidate who speaks to them is enticing. They'll put up with a lot.

But as Meatloaf sang, They'll do anything for love--but they won't do that

The one thing that can damage someone like Carson or Trump--a candidate for which practicality is not their selling-point--is to damage their brand. In this case? To make them mockable. Whatever else Trump is, you can't really make fun of him. Carson? The whole pyramids-grain thing? That hurts. And once he's hurt? Once he's hurt he can be taken down like a wounded gazelle chased by a cheetah (that's the press, in case you're wondering--possibly with, like, Marco Rubio riding valiantly on its back or something).

In the case of Trump, his base voters? They just want to burn the place down. He's a barrel bomb dropped on the GOPe. For everyone else, though, his brand is that he Won't Back Down. That sells. It's selling. Carson's brand is that he's a Man of Principle. That's well and good--but when you look principled but kinda dumb, it doesn't come together.

This? This Does Not Help.
In case you can't tell from the graphic, the designer somehow got the north eastern states wrong. How do you even do that with Power Point??

So it looks like Carson declines a little and Trump? Well, the powers that be better figure out something fast. The Omnivore bets he's got an Intern food-taster just in case.

1 comment:

  1. "The question though is: why would anything hurt Cain when nothing hurts Trump?"

    Should Cain be Carson?

    /Also, should you leave it, because it's an amazing typo that actually helps the case?