Wednesday, February 10, 2016

New Hampshire Aftermath: Mourning In America

Last night New Hampshire kicked the ass of political conventional wisdom. To wit:

  1. Polling was . . . pretty good. Trump over-performed but everything looked more or less right (especially with with the extreme fluidity of the visible state of the race).
  2. The general rules of political gravity were suspended (Socialist won a primary, SuperPACs don't do jack, retail politics in NH suddenly don't matter, Gaffes change everything, and the party, apparently, doesn't decide anything).
  3. People all over the place were aghast (including political-pundit horse-race guys because it was all OVAH at 8 PM).

The DNC: Socialism WINS!

Bernie won big. How big? He won every demographic except people making 200k per year or more. That kinda proves his point, doesn't it? Hillary spent a lot of money and time in the race and she didn't expect to win--but she didn't manage to stick a finger in the dike either.

This means a few things:
  1. Hillary may still be the "electable" candidate--but it looks like she's got some issues that are sticking (trust, her speeches to Goldman Sachs, etc.)
  2. Sanders has momentum and, if he can close the deal with, well, everyone (he won moderate Democrats by 58%) then he's a real threat.

On the other hand, after the crushing defeat of McGovern, the Democrats re-tooled their delegate system so that there are substantial numbers of "super delegates" who aren't assigned by voting. This is the Party Decides made formal. Current delegate counts with Super Delegates who have openly committed?

  • Hillary Clinton: 394
  • Bernie Sanders: 42

The RNC: Holy Shit!

New Hampshire was supposed to winnow the field--to force drop-outs and prove the candidates that remained solid. It didn't. For one thing, Trump exceeded his numbers--so, yeah: probably solid--but not what the party wants.

Secondly, Rubio, who was granted a "win" for coming in 3rd in Iowa had become the golden-boy for the embattled establishment. His strategy was 3-2-1 (come in 3 in crazy Iowa, 2nd in saner New Hampshire, and then 1st in South Carolina after everyone realized he was The One).

He's not looking at 3-5-? which doesn't work so well.

Maybe Agent Smith needs to shoot him first?

If his Marco Ruboto gaffe sunk him, what's the excuse for John Kasich coming in a strong second? The guy has no path to the nomination in any other state and is essentially a one-hit-wonder. In a month people will be asking "John Kasich?? Whatever happened to him?" (hint: he'll still be Governor of Ohio).

Cruz came in third, which is good for Cruz: he has a shot in South Carolina--but he's hated by the establishment so him getting a faint breath-of-life isn't so great for them. Jeb? Jeb's "back."

In other news, Chris Christie was, apparently, thoroughly hated by the Rubio crowd--they saw him as blasting their champion to pieces and then winning nothing for himself. It was counter-noted that:

  1. All Christie really did was give Rubio rope to hang himself and 
  2. What the hell else was he supposed to do? Go easy on Rubio in the last debate because Rubio, the fragile snowflake that he apparently is, is still our last, best hope for peace? Uh-huh.

What Now? 

Now we get one more debate which will probably be a bloodbath and then we get to South Carolina. Oh, and Hillary and Bernie will probably debate too--maybe someone can watch and tell The Omnivore what happens? The Cruz-Trump war will probably make your TV bleed. Trump has already called Cruz "a pussy" (kinda--but yeah, he did). Cruz, having won in Iowa, could be magnanimous. 

Having lost badly in New Hampshire, he now needs to wreck Trump before South Carolina. That should be interesting.

In a way that is almost sad, Bush's campaign is planning on a "scorched earth" attack on Kasich and Rubio. Ahh, fratricide. 

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