Saturday, March 19, 2016

The Fellowship Against Trump

The plan to stop Trump--the combining factions arrayed against him--have a daunting task. He is perilously close to having the One Right and his army of Uruk-hai are massed in several critical states. What will our plucky heroes do?

The Gathering Storm

The math is daunting: While Trump needs to do slightly better in his delegate counts to get to 1237 than he has done thus far, the way the states assign delegates makes that a lot easier now. Even the 'proportional' states go disproportionately to the winner. Trump is way ahead in some big ones like New York. The hobbits (Kasich and Cruz) are battling between each other and show no signs of teaming up.

The Anti-Trump alliance spent millions of dollars in Florida only to see Rubio win exactly one district. Trump won in all the others. 

The plans look like this:
  1. Plan A: Stop him from getting 1237 - This plan involves Cruz and Kasich carving up the remaining states and blocking Trump in states where one is stronger to come close enough to a tie to peel off delegates. Thus far? They're fighting among each other. Kasich is campaigning in Utah where he, tactically speaking, should leave things to Cruz.
  2. Plan B: Rob Him At The Convention - The theory is that the convention can rewrite the rules to flat out deny Trump even if he gets to 1237. This is far-fetched but apparently technically possible. The problem is that the chaos of robbing Trump by rules-manipulation is that (a) the rioting would, at that point, kinda be justified--even to the rules-are-rules crowd and (b) Who do you install? The obvious choice is Paul Ryan--but remember that Republicans have spent millions of dollars on the current candidates. The candidates have followers--believers--and they won't happily just give it up for "the good of the party." This is a plan with no end-game.
  3. Plan C: Third-Party Plan - This plan involves losing the convention to Trump--but running a 3rd party candidate. Sure: it's too late to get on the states in many cases--but what if you just get on the ballot in swing states and a few red states and shave off votes from Trump where it's crucial to him? Again? Who? People like Rick Perry--and by 'people,' The Omnivore means Erick Erickson--super-conservative. Would #NeverTrump voters take Perry of Trump? Maybe. Maybe not.
  4. Plan D: The Electoral College - As a last gasp, what if the Electors (state appointees in many cases) just didn't vote for Trump? It's possible--hell, it's their job, really. The issue, again, is that this could break the country. Who do they vote for? What if that person won? Or threw it to the House? And the House selected  . . . Rick Perry. Possible? Maybe. Likely? No. A good idea? Hell no.

The Last, Unspeakable Plan

There is, of course, a plan that no one is talking about: Donate to Hillary. Fund a massive Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote campaign for her.  Run with that. To be sure, it's as unpalatable as a liberal voting for Ted Cruz--but Ted Cruz is a real politician. Trump with the nuclear arsenal? That's ... worse. Way, way worse, probably.

The problem, of courses, is that every Republican nominee stood on that debate stage and said each of them, including Trump, would make a better president than Hillary. They all missed their chance to repudiate him. Cruz hugged him for months, even. Rince Pribus has basically endorsed him: They had him sign a pledge.

The right-wing media  loves him. Mitt Romney stood on stage, happy to take his endorsement.

Like it or not, Trump has been legitimized. Deciding that he'd be worse than Hillary would mean basically everyone, from the top down, has been lying to the GOP voters. They were, of course, but admitting that? Uh-unh.

Goof luck guys.

NOTE: The Omnivore will be out of the country and away from the Internet for most of next week. He is looking for a guest blogger! He has one in mind--but if you would like to throw your hat in the ring, The Omnivore will consider interested parties for another time!

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