Tuesday, July 26, 2016

DNC Day 1: The Baying of the Bros

The 1 PM story was PANIC! At The Disco. The 11 PM story was about Michelle Obama's speech and Sander's full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton. It is hard to know what exactly the percent of BERNIE chanters on the floor was--but some reports put it at 3-5%.

The Omnivore will assert that from his seat on the couch, it sounded louder than that.

Some Observations

Last night, at the lectern, no one mentioned ISIS (at least that The Omnivore heard). No one said #BlackLivesMatter. This is a set of messaging distinct from (a) the GOP convention's and (b) the idea that the Democrats' only move is pandering.

Michelle Obama is, in fact, a hell of a speaker. They wanted her to go last--but Bernie apparently wanted that slot and he got it. Now we can see why they planned it that way.

Elizabeth Warren is way over-rated as a speaker. She was low energy and--not timid in substance--but almost timid in tone. Maybe not being picked for VEEP took some of the fire out of her?

The Omnivore thinks the Democrat's stage isn't bad--but nothing like the GOP's convention stage which could have come from a science fiction movie (it'd be the remake of Blade Runner, according to the messaging orders The Omnivore is getting from Big Media*).

The Sanders reddit was full of outrage and just-plain-rage. Pledges never to vote for her--no matter the consequences--and commenters rejecting calls to be respectful of FLOTUS--showcase the Left's on Make It B(e)rn faction. Twitter was taking bets on whether Bernie would be booed during his speech. He wasn't (or, at least, wasn't notably to The Omnivore's ear). This suggests that for the most part, he closed the deal. There are stories of supporters being ejected--or, in some cases, not allowed in, and Bernie signs being collected by the convention staff.

The Omnivore assumes these are true--but the Bernie web-traffic makes it clear that the movement always saw itself as an insurgency and is using conspiracy theory (rigged elections, media blackout, etc.) and grievance amplification (the DNCLeak) as their primary engagements in the process. Those are toxic: the party isn't just right to kick them out, it's a requirement.

The RNC is wishing it'd had the capability to do something like that.

The Trump Bump

The convention comes at a time when Trump leads in 538's election projection. Trump has gotten a sizable bump in the polls and while some analysis suggests that it's Republicans "coming home" it's hard to square that with the idea that he's an under-dog in the first place.

The Omnivore does not precisely understand the mechanics of convention bumps--but would assess that despite the dissension, given the strength of the prime-time hours, the Democrats went a good way toward making up lost ground.

* The Omnivore got email about following the crowd in describing Trump's stage as "dystopian"

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