Friday, July 1, 2016

The Pending FBI Decision

As the #Benghazi debacle winds down with a whimper instead of a bang, we are approaching the conventions, then the debates, and then the election (there are also VP choices in there--but eh).

We also have to negotiate the obligatory October Surprise--which will likely come a bit sooner in the form of the FBI's recommendation on Hillary's email-scandal. Two things have happened just now that are of interest:

  1. Bill Clinton had a secret 1:1 meeting with Loretta Lynch at an airport. What was discussed is unknown. It's claimed to be a chance meeting--but the FBI allegedly refused all recording devices / cameras. So who knows?
  2. Lynch has said she'll abide by the FBI decision (and those of her career prosecutors), thus removing herself from the food-chain of blame.
Or is she? Jazz Shaw at HotAir smells a potential rat:
What if Comey has already decided to pull the rip cord and recommend no formal charges against Hillary Clinton because the firestorm resulting from a call to prosecute would just be too hot for him? Then Lynch and the President are in the clear. She can simply claim that she was leaving it up to Comey all along and the entire unpleasant affair drops down the memory hole.

Omnivorous Thoughts

It's a good thing The Omnivore doesn't bet: He would have had money on FBI recommends prosecution but Justice turns it down. It has the Freddy-vs-Jason "Tie Ending" aspect where each side gets to say they won without resolving anything. It fits with all the player's motivations to the extent we can summarize them.

It seems plausible to The Omnivore that the FBI wouldn't be doing all this without a plan to indict.

On the other hand, it also seems unlikely that, at this point, if Hillary did not actually send Secret / Classified data to someone who should not have had it that there's a strong federal case. If she did, well, that's different--but so far that hasn't even been alleged.

The other element is that right now the Republicans are not out of the running--but are in a dire situation. The convention is looking like a potential mess, more and more GOP elders are bailing on Trump in one way or another. And Trump has yet to convincingly pivot.

The pressure to keep Hillary clean for the nomination must be immense. While the FBI is likely nobody's bitch, might the prospect of President Trump actually be a factor in their decision? The Omnivore just doesn't know.

The Omnivore told someone this morning that these kill-shot scandals rarely materialize. The Trump-Pedo case? The Omnivore hasn't studied it--but doesn't find it a likely end-state for the campaign. The #Benghazi conspiracy theories? Wishful thinking. To be sure, it does happen (Edwards)--and it sure might happen here--but The Omnivore would bet against it.

Just not as much as The Omnivore would've bet a few days ago.

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