Friday, August 12, 2016

The WTF Phase of the Election

It is very hard to know what to believe right now: All the available evidence shows the Trump campaign crashing like an Ebola patient whose treatment is limited to huffing glue. He's running next to no ads. He's fighting with the RNC. Seemingly dedicated to staying at the top of the news cycle every day, he consumes oxygen from newly released Clinton scandals by creating his own.

What are we to think?

  1. He's delusional. He isn't listening to anyone and it has caught up with him in a big way.
  2. He's got a plan. There are rumors and conspiracy theories of secret voters, skewed polls, and Hillary health scares. Maybe the FBI will break her on the Clinton Foundation? Maybe Wikileaks has the buried bodies? 
  3. He doesn't want to be president. There are rumors this thing got away from him and now he's intentionally planning to bail on it.
  4. He's a plant. His intent is to do as much long-term damage to the GOP as possible. Maybe because his golf-buddy Bill Clinton put him up to it?

The Evidence

There really isn't good evidence of any of these. Considering that Trump could be a Russian stooge and Wikileaks could well be a Russian front, maybe that winds up the best--but even in the event of Hillary dying or going to jail, the way Trump is running right now he might get beat by Tim Kaine. He'd almost definitely get beat by Joe Biden. It's not like minorities or women, now horrified with Trump would switch over to him because of a money-laundering scandal.

The idea that he's delusional--that he can't or won't change--is somewhat credible. He's said as much and he may have decided that if he can fill a gigantic stadium anywhere he goes, he can fill the voting booths. It's also not impossible that face, daily, with giant, passionate crowds, he just doesn't believe he's losing. Humans are prone to large-number errors . . .  so maybe?

The idea that he's a saboteur is crazy. We know he could pull of becoming a crazy-ass nominee of the GOP because he did--but to have that as your plan isn't possible. Simply put, the most this could be true is Trump saying "Hey, Bill, remember the birther thing I did in '12? Haha! That was a blast. I wonder if I could do that again with like . . . Mexicans, or something." 

Bill, takes a hit of the doobie he's smoking and says "Yeah. Those were good times. But why's it gotta be Mexicans?"

Trump, waiting for him to hand it over, says "GOP. Man. The fucking GOP."

If Trump really wanted to lose he wouldn't do it like this. He'd have folded for Cruz. Trump, from what we know of him, does NOT like losing. He's a winner--who wants to win.

What Now?

Things are happening so fast that The Omnivore hasn't been able to focus on just one thing. Today the first Florida polls came out that showed Hillary up by 5. If that's true, that's the ball-game. Right there (electorally speaking, there's still Wikileaks). This trend has finally had the damage sink in.

The Omnivore doesn't like to make predictions--but one thing seems clear: the pivot that Trump has telegraphed--to becoming a serious candidate--doesn't seem likely.


  1. Looking for an Occam's Razor explanation and the best fit is that he just isn't that smart, and combined with his narcissism, leads him to repeatedly hit himself in the head with the proverbial hammer. The guy just cannot stop. This explanation also has the benefit of explaining his crappy business record. Some postulate that if he'd just taken his $40MM inheritance and invested in ETF's or other passive investments, he'd be worth much more today.

    1. Agreed. It's like, trying to find any explanation for Trump, other than that he is exactly what he seems to be, seems like a waste of time. He is exactly what he seems to be. The _story_ is, basically, that he got nominated. That's ... well it certainly is a THING.

    2. Or... that he never really wanted the job nor seriously expected to win a major party's nomination (his abortive Reform Party bid in 2000 notwithstanding), but now, having done so, is trapped by his own ego and finds himself without a face-saving "out", absent empty allegations of electoral fraud - the outlines of which have doubtless already been drafted by some ink-stained wretch or other.

      -- Ω