The problem is that Trumpian populism isn't all that conservative. American leadership in the world? No--it's America First, which is defitionally inward looking if not adversarial to both allies and enemies. Fiscal responsibility? Well, that ship sailed. Entitlement reform? No. The GOP position on health care? No idea. Immigration? Hostile, sure--but how hostile and how effective? We don't know. Free trade? We've got more tariffs now than ever before.
Also--look at the leading lights: Dinesh D'Souza has thankfully fallen far--but he's still on the NRO masthead and has a movie out the Trumpians are praising. Ben Shapiro has made more than a cottage industry of provoking "the libs"--but does he have any new ideas outside of zingers? No.
Guys like Bannon and Milo fire off Nazi symbols like flares while creating a kind of showmanship which is essentially just recruitment for a culture-war. The solid thinkers in the not-so-distant Age of Romney are almost entirely dispossessed.
Worse--the Never Trump conservatives have a problem they are only recently recognizing the magnitude of: Conservatism, as it stood, is not just unpopular. It is actually dead.
How Can The Omnivore Say / Know This?
Math.
Conservatism worked when:
- We had an ideological enemy. Communism vs. Capitalism was a great back-stop for Conservative ideas. Democracy vs. Fascism too. Today? It's Capitalism vs. Really, Really Corrupt Capitalism. That isn't much of a distinction.
- Wages were linked to productivity. The industrial revolution (and, erm, unions) gave us the ability to link wages and personal prosperity to employment and productivity. Today--not the case: productivity goes up. Wages are flat, employment is down (in the productive sectors--underemployment is raging--but right now people are manning check-out lanes).
- The Financial Industry didn't exist in its current form. A great deal of economic inequality can be linked directly to the rise of the FI. The industry existed before today--but it has grown in both size and reach over the past two decades and fuels massive distributions of wealth upwards. It's not going away--but it has never really been acknowledged as the great engine of inequality that it is.
- Globalism was not a given. When everything you can do without a college degree can be done cheaper in the third world and shipped to America for less than you could do it? You have a problem. Personal responsibility--to have a well paying job--becomes a Sisyphean task. If you just demand a living wage, they can replace you with a robot.
- Religious values were still, you know, values. Say what you want--back "in the day" the GOP was backed by a respected institution of The Church. Today? Erm . . . no (yes: it is still backed by the church--but more and more this is looking like the corrupt backing the corrupt).
- Getting sick without healthcare wasn't a Conservative Virtue. Whatever happened to healthcare since the golden age of the GOP, today the "conservative" position on healthcare is "fuck you." That's a good message to people who have it and don't care about others. For everyone else . . .
- Racism was deniable. The GOP has, since the 60's, had a problem with racism. It relies on a certain strain of person for voting clout--but had to pretend that there was not racial animus--that it was all, erm, trumped-up by liberals and the Democrats. Today? That's a really hard sell and even a revived GOP would need to come to terms with it.
So What Does The Conservative Do?
If you are worried about America's slide into socialism, you are right to be: there are forces (like Chapo Trap House) that preach a "socialist revolution" without any real plan or ideological underpinning. Yes: corruption is bad. Sure, healthcare is good--but the kind of tectonic changes necessary for a full "Nordic Makeover" are simply not possible under the current state. If Bernie got elected, you wouldn't get "Bernietopia"--you'd get a giant log-jam of government that gets you a bridge like 1/5th of the way to "Bernietopia" and then collapses and dumps you in the Atlantic.
And that's assuming Bernietopia would be "as advertised." It, just as with the Libertarian Dream World of AynnLandia would most likely not be what it was sold as.
So what do you do? If you don't like liberalism (pro-choice, anything goes culturally), don't like socialism (universal health care, high taxes on the rich), and want to own a bundle of AR-15s no matter how many kids get shot, what are your options?
They are (a) sign up with the populists--who have embraced the racism and the xenophobia and the foreign policy you hate--not ot mention the buffoonery, (b) try to "reason" with the liberals--which is a lost cause because you already set fire to your cred a while back (or because They Are Unreasonable--which, sure--but you also torched your credibility. Don't forget that), or (c) Try to Do Your Own Thing.
Obviously (c) is the best answer. From a conservative perspective it is the right thing to do. From a liberal perspective it is the best shot at stopping the racist-populists. The question is: how do you do it? The orignal ideas--free trade, immigration friendly, low corporate taxes, American leadership, religious friendliness, and so on--these are losers.
We've seen that with the hostile takeover of the GOP. And the problem is that right now, even if you had more than say 15% of the vote with them, they simply don't address the big questions.
What are they?
The Big Questions For Post-Trump Conservatism
If you call yourself a conservative (fine) you need to, today, have some answers for real questions people are going to ask if you are going to sell them on your policy positions. They do not have to be the most popular answers--but they need to be both sound--and they need to address what honest brokers will see as real and serious questions. Let's look.
Post-Trump Healthcare
How do you give people healthcare that is both decent and affordable? If the answer is "you do not--use the emergency room" that is an answer that is going to alienate a lot of people. If you lie and say "we will make the markets work for you" that will result in the selling of junk insurance or not protecting pre-existing conditions (which everybody hates). You need an answer you can be honest about--what is it--who gets left behind?
Living Wages
Full employment doesn't help if the wages are too low to survive on. Households where both parents work many, many hours are not raising kids in the way that will strengthen our nation. Paying everyone 15-bucks-an-hour may not work either--but we must recognize that automation, artificial intelligence, and globalism have done a lot to reduce jobs that either paid enough historically or were available to people in the bottom 80% of the skill zones.
This problem is only going to get worse: when order-taking systems for McDonalds cost less than 5.00/hr McDonalds is going to get rid of the high school kids (well, 80% of them). It won't be "punishment" for asking for too much money--the job losses will be done for obvious reasons: if McDonalds doesn't do it, BurgerTerminator will eat their lunch.
So what is your answer here? What do you tell people who are driving Ubers and struggling to make a living?
Future War
The GOP used to be the American Leadership nation. We would kick bad-guy ass. We were considered a moral counterbalance to Russia, China, or other nations. Not perfect, of course--but preferable to autocracies or navel-gazing European states. The Marshall Plan turned foes into friends and the Cold War made it clear that we were for high standards of living and freedom--as opposed to the other guys.
Now we find ourselves mired in weird asymmetric wars where our populace barely knows we are fighting. Worse: when we attack today--and shortly, tomorrow--a lot of the fighting will be done by robots. This "bloodless" form of war--where troops do bleed and die--but we thank them for their service and watch some more Netflix has eroded the difference between Democrats--who were limp-wristed Doves in the Carter era--and Republicans--who used to be scowling-faced hawks. With Obama droning the fuck out of the Middle East, what does the Post Trump conservative have to tell their potential party members?
Is there an opinion on American moral leadership? Are we a moral force? Do we take stands based on genocides, war crimes, and so on? Or do we give up on that as even an excuse. There has always been an element of realpolitik in American geopolitics--but there was also a recognized morality. We went in places that were not advantageous to us. Is that just over with? Or do we have a policy position about boots on the ground or drones in the air?
Guns and Babies
It is a given that a modernized GOP would be Pro-2A and Pro-Life. The question is going to be "how do you sell this" to a younger generation that is increasingly "un-churched" and sees guns as hobby items that sometimes kill a bunch of kids? Do you stick to the pro-life religious underpinnings? Or do you recognize that most people don't see a 1st or 2nd term pregnancy as "a baby" and try to prevent 3rd term abortions of convenience (of which there are almost none)?
Are AR-15s the hill to die on? Or is there a distinct remaining philosophical position on the Right to Bear Arms that might not include these? The Omnivore doesn't particularly know--but the GOP had better figure this out--and fast.
The Grim Future
Today, if you are a conservative, the future is closer than it appears in the mirror. The new generation isn't happy with their job prospects and doesn't see the economy the way you do. Your allies-in-name are more interested in winning online-debate-points than adopting your policy positions--and the positions of Reagan are problematic in a world where the availability of good work may dry up and the voices of the marginalized are now louder than ever before.
Conservatism still has a role--a necessary one--with the end of Trump--which will happen sooner or later no matter what--it is unclear if Trumpism will still have a heart-beat. Conservatism needs to be rested and ready--but it also needs to recognize that it has to answer some questions before it can get back to where it was.
And that's assuming Bernietopia would be "as advertised." It, just as with the Libertarian Dream World of AynnLandia would most likely not be what it was sold as.
So what do you do? If you don't like liberalism (pro-choice, anything goes culturally), don't like socialism (universal health care, high taxes on the rich), and want to own a bundle of AR-15s no matter how many kids get shot, what are your options?
They are (a) sign up with the populists--who have embraced the racism and the xenophobia and the foreign policy you hate--not ot mention the buffoonery, (b) try to "reason" with the liberals--which is a lost cause because you already set fire to your cred a while back (or because They Are Unreasonable--which, sure--but you also torched your credibility. Don't forget that), or (c) Try to Do Your Own Thing.
Obviously (c) is the best answer. From a conservative perspective it is the right thing to do. From a liberal perspective it is the best shot at stopping the racist-populists. The question is: how do you do it? The orignal ideas--free trade, immigration friendly, low corporate taxes, American leadership, religious friendliness, and so on--these are losers.
We've seen that with the hostile takeover of the GOP. And the problem is that right now, even if you had more than say 15% of the vote with them, they simply don't address the big questions.
What are they?
The Big Questions For Post-Trump Conservatism
If you call yourself a conservative (fine) you need to, today, have some answers for real questions people are going to ask if you are going to sell them on your policy positions. They do not have to be the most popular answers--but they need to be both sound--and they need to address what honest brokers will see as real and serious questions. Let's look.
Post-Trump Healthcare
How do you give people healthcare that is both decent and affordable? If the answer is "you do not--use the emergency room" that is an answer that is going to alienate a lot of people. If you lie and say "we will make the markets work for you" that will result in the selling of junk insurance or not protecting pre-existing conditions (which everybody hates). You need an answer you can be honest about--what is it--who gets left behind?
Living Wages
Full employment doesn't help if the wages are too low to survive on. Households where both parents work many, many hours are not raising kids in the way that will strengthen our nation. Paying everyone 15-bucks-an-hour may not work either--but we must recognize that automation, artificial intelligence, and globalism have done a lot to reduce jobs that either paid enough historically or were available to people in the bottom 80% of the skill zones.
This problem is only going to get worse: when order-taking systems for McDonalds cost less than 5.00/hr McDonalds is going to get rid of the high school kids (well, 80% of them). It won't be "punishment" for asking for too much money--the job losses will be done for obvious reasons: if McDonalds doesn't do it, BurgerTerminator will eat their lunch.
So what is your answer here? What do you tell people who are driving Ubers and struggling to make a living?
Future War
The GOP used to be the American Leadership nation. We would kick bad-guy ass. We were considered a moral counterbalance to Russia, China, or other nations. Not perfect, of course--but preferable to autocracies or navel-gazing European states. The Marshall Plan turned foes into friends and the Cold War made it clear that we were for high standards of living and freedom--as opposed to the other guys.
Now we find ourselves mired in weird asymmetric wars where our populace barely knows we are fighting. Worse: when we attack today--and shortly, tomorrow--a lot of the fighting will be done by robots. This "bloodless" form of war--where troops do bleed and die--but we thank them for their service and watch some more Netflix has eroded the difference between Democrats--who were limp-wristed Doves in the Carter era--and Republicans--who used to be scowling-faced hawks. With Obama droning the fuck out of the Middle East, what does the Post Trump conservative have to tell their potential party members?
Is there an opinion on American moral leadership? Are we a moral force? Do we take stands based on genocides, war crimes, and so on? Or do we give up on that as even an excuse. There has always been an element of realpolitik in American geopolitics--but there was also a recognized morality. We went in places that were not advantageous to us. Is that just over with? Or do we have a policy position about boots on the ground or drones in the air?
Guns and Babies
It is a given that a modernized GOP would be Pro-2A and Pro-Life. The question is going to be "how do you sell this" to a younger generation that is increasingly "un-churched" and sees guns as hobby items that sometimes kill a bunch of kids? Do you stick to the pro-life religious underpinnings? Or do you recognize that most people don't see a 1st or 2nd term pregnancy as "a baby" and try to prevent 3rd term abortions of convenience (of which there are almost none)?
Are AR-15s the hill to die on? Or is there a distinct remaining philosophical position on the Right to Bear Arms that might not include these? The Omnivore doesn't particularly know--but the GOP had better figure this out--and fast.
The Grim Future
Today, if you are a conservative, the future is closer than it appears in the mirror. The new generation isn't happy with their job prospects and doesn't see the economy the way you do. Your allies-in-name are more interested in winning online-debate-points than adopting your policy positions--and the positions of Reagan are problematic in a world where the availability of good work may dry up and the voices of the marginalized are now louder than ever before.
Conservatism still has a role--a necessary one--with the end of Trump--which will happen sooner or later no matter what--it is unclear if Trumpism will still have a heart-beat. Conservatism needs to be rested and ready--but it also needs to recognize that it has to answer some questions before it can get back to where it was.
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