Another Brick In The Wall

The Omnivore wonders if the Trumpers still think the wall is being built and going up just fine? We are now in a government shutdown which is projected to last through Christmas because the Senate has adjourned until the 27th.

It's not clear what will change after the 27th though--so, hey.

The Facts About The Shutdown

As far as The Omnivore knows, these are the facts about the Shutdown.

1. The Senate passed a unanimous (bi-partisan bill) to send to the House. The President said he would sign it. It had 1.6bn for border security)
2. The President changed his mind and refused to sign it--so the House cobbled together a vote and sent it to the Senate (with 5+bn for The Wall).
3. The Senate was unable to come up with 51 votes to pass it--so it floundered and failed. NOTE: this means Republican votes were also lacking (in addition to Democratic votes).
4. The president bragged on live TV that he would take responsibility for the shutdown.
5. Illegal Immigration peaked 11 years ago and is at a low-point.

Did The Omnivore miss anything?

What Now?

On Jan 3rd the Democrats will take control of the House, pass a budget sans-wall, send it to the Senate. There:

• It will likely pass the Senate--or, if it does not, it will be because of Republican votes (or Mitch McConnell refusing to bring it to a vote).
• If it passes the Senate then Trump will have to veto it.
• If Trump vetoes it then the Senate will have to override the veto (which, at least in theory from the first vote, they have the votes to do).

Who Owns The Shutdown?

The owner of a shutdown is based on the following:

• Who caused it?
• Who could stop it?

In this case the shutdown was caused by Trump changing his mind about signing the bill. The bill passed the Senate by 100-0 and would have easily passed the House.

Worse, the bill did not get filibustered in the Senate--meaning that the Democrats would have some fingerprints on the failure to advance the bill. It failed for bi-partisan reasons. Essentially a "push." 

Who could stop it? Well, McConnell could have stopped it with the Nuclear Option if the bill had 51 votes in the Senate but it didn't--so he couldn't literally advance the bill (it is not clear he could have successfully invoked the nuclear option--and would have been amazingly foolish for this bill anyway). 

Only Trump can stop it--but signaling he will sign a bill that has enough votes--or a 2/3rd majority in the Senate can stop it in the future if he vetoes a bill they manage to pass.

In other words, it's Trump's shutdown.

Okay--So, How Does This Play Out?

This is a bad time for Trump to go to war with Congress. Firstly the Democrats will take control of the House and, it appears, Pelosi is going to be highly disciplined in going after Trump. If she does not overplay her hand she can do a lot of damage to him with investigations, passing bills that are popular in the Senate (DACA? Re-Open the government, etc.) and forcing him and McConnell to stand them down.

Secondly, it is unclear that the issue is even resonate with most voters. The midterms were a mess despite relying on an immigration message. There isn't a great factual argument in favor of the The Wall--it's symbolic and The Omnivore thinks more people are starting to realize that. Furthermore, outside the Right Wing news bubble, stories about DHS people not getting paid (having horrible Christmases?) are going to dominate the media.

That doesn't sound like a winning position. Finally, with several high-profile resignations happening the news is not going to be able to focus on what the President wants the message to be (illegals, MS-13, etc.). It's going to have to cover a bunch of other things (ISIS . . . again?) which is going to weaken him.

Merry Christmas.