How Does This All End?

If the news is to be believed, we are at an inflection point in the Trump presidency:

• Mueller is said to be "about finished" (one quoted expert says within the first 3 months of 2019).
• Trump, although presently unindicted, is found to have committed a felony by violating Federal Election law. This--as per the John Edwards precedent--is likely worth some jail time.
• There are indications there's more coming--including on Russia.
• We are seeing firm evidence that Russian Ops worked through the NRA to set up communications and channels with high-ranking GOP politicians.
• Trump's White House appears to be ill prepared (he can't get a new Chief of Staff, his legal team is thin, he got schooled by Nancy Pelosi, etc.)

So How Does This Begin?

Let's analyze two basic fundamentals:

1. If it appears that Trump will be tried and jailed if/when he leaves office then having him remain in office for two years with a potential prison sentence hanging over his head seems . . . erm . . . like a bad idea. Of course he can step down, install Pence, and get a pardon at the last minute--or win reelection in 2020 and have the statute of limitations run out--but the first seems like an ugly situation and the second seems less likely than it might have two years ago.
2. It looks like at the very best Team Trump was unable to execute on collusion with Russia. Certainly they met a whole bunch--and certainly they knew Russia was pulling for them--and certainly they were interested in Russian information or help. If that's the best-bet, it is not a far stretch to imagine a case where members of the Trump coalition told Kremlin agents that Trump would relax the hated sanctions since they were "friends."

Of course the Trump faithful won't believe anything that comes from the Mueller investigation no matter how well documented--and the bar for proving "treason" is, still, realistically pretty high. If there was a for-real "you hack, I un-sanction" deal in place, well, that's one thing. But if it was just "let's all be friends" that seems less actionable.

There's also, for Democrats, one important rule: The GOP will only vote to remove Trump when you are just finally wishing he would stay.

Removing Trump will only be viable when he is obviously doing more damage in office than he'd do out of office. So long as (a) he holds his base and (b) the GOP feels that they have a chance with Base + Independents + Russian ops, they will keep him. Only when he is nuclear-levels of toxic will they jettison him like stinky-fish-ballast in the hopes of salvaging their careers.

Nixon stepped down when his general popularity was at 24%. Trump's is still around 40%. The kind of tectonic event it would take to move that by 15 points is hard to imagine--he really could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and keep most of his current supporters (so long as he, like, shot a lib or something).

Okay? So What's the End Game?

The Omnivore isn't sure how non-indictment of a sitting president really works--the charges are made public--does it all just sit frozen for 2 years and then the charges happen when he leaves office? Would him stepping down, say, after a loss and being pardoned by the Veep actually work? Assuming the trial hasn't even happened yet? He would have to plead guilty to crimes that haven't even been through trial if that's the case. 

Could he be tried on state charges for any of that? Unlikely--it's Federal Election Laws--but if he pleads guilty to the illegal pay-off does he open himself up for civil suits? The Omnivore doesn't know--and it seems like a mess. That's the best case.

The second problem is that the Trumpian die-hards live in an alternate universe where he has committed no crime. Their delusion is aided and abetted by conservative media and basic misunderstandings about how the law works. Presumably, for example, Michael Cohen's excellent lawyers know the arguments Team Trump put out--and decided pleading and getting 3 years was a better bet. 

So--we have an unstoppable force of various law-suits (let's assume non-"treason" for now) hitting an immovable object of Trump's delusional base. What happens when an unstoppable force hits an immovable object?

As Ian Banks taught us: "The unstoppable force stops. The Immovable Object moves."

If we use this principle that means: Trump finds some way to evade the various lawsuits but his base comes to accept that he needed to GTFO of politics. The GOP finds some way for him to declare victory, retire a hero, and stay out of jail?

Maybe?