The Looming Second Shutdown

Prognostication is a mug's game. As a realist once noted: "The market can stay crazy longer than you can stay solvent." Even if you happen to be right about everything, things don't always turn out the way the facts suggest they should. The Omnivore knows better.

Which is why The Omnivore isn't predicting another government shutdown in 3 weeks. But the odds, sayeth The Omnivore, the odds are higher than you think.

What Trumpers Think Is Happening

Remember that the dedicated Trumpaloo--bless their tiny hearts--lives in a reality distortion field wherein Trump has taken his boot off the liberal-democrat's throat--to let them breathe a little--to come to their senses. He has given them 3 weeks to get their act together and agree to The Wall (Steel Slats!). If they fail, he will then lower the hammer of national emergency and seize the government by force.

Remember--the emotional foundation of the Trumpaloo is the need to win at any cost. The driving engine behind the support of Trump isn't about policy or logic or outcomes--no--it's about redress of a cultural humiliation they have internalized because it has been fed into their veins by Fox News.

Trump just suffered humiliation at the hands of no less than Nancy Pelosi--the head demoness after the removal of the Arch-Hillary. Pelosi has been hated a lot--for a very, very long time--and to see her come in and "win a pissing contest" with The Great Man? It will not stand. It cannot stand.

It won't.

But--But--But, You Say

If Trump really wanted to fight this out capitulating as he did is the absolute worst strategy. If the Dem-Ranks really were getting nervous then this will remove all doubts. If he felt he could weaken the Pelosi-Schumer alliance? He's just shored it up entirely. If he thought the public could be swayed to his side? Well, he just gave up that fight.

So it makes no sense that he'd plunge back into a shutdown three weeks after losing one badly with nothing changed except his odds of success being worse. Right? It makes zero sense. Right?

The shutdown we just went through made zero sense. McConnell had turtled his way around all the obstacles--he had arranged things to avoid the shutdown. The Dems, the Repubs, and the White House were all in agreement.

What failed was Fox--talking heads, led by another female antagonist, Ann Coulter, pounced on Trump as weak--a blow from a woman straight to his tiny testicles (and, thus, symbolically, the tiny testicles of every Trumpaloo out in Foxlandia--which is to say, all of them). McConnell couldn't control that.

So we got the illogical--a shutdown with no end--and it played out the way everyone thought it would: Trump caved when air-travel faltered (remember the sequester? That got a quick fix from congress too).

If a second-shutdown is even more illogical? Well, sure--but that's a point in favor of it happening. Not the other way around.

How It Happens

If it happens, this is how it plays out.

1. Trump gets together with Pelosi and says "okay, you had your victory--now I get mine. 5-bill for the wall. I opened the government for you. Now it's your turn."
2. Pelosi says "Nawp." 
3. Trump flummoxed and infuriated has a choice--shutdown the government or declare a national emergency and plunge into the courts. Which does he choose?

The obvious choice is the National Emergency one--after all, Trump thinks "everyone can just shrug--say it's Trump-being-Trump, it gets a court challenge and, eh? Who cares--I fought. No one can say I didn't."

That's what we're all expecting. The Omnivore, though, isn't quite so sure.

Why not?

Well, two basic reasons, and one minor third. 

Reason 1: Trump is Wounded and 2020 Looms

The National Emergency route is really disliked by one group of people: Senators (and, specifically, Senatorial Republicans). Yes, they want Trump to be successful. Yes, they need the base--but this is a strict congressional over-ride and Senators are generally smart enough to know there will be consequences for it--bad ones. If Trump gets his emergency order shut down by the courts, they suffer all of the damage (becoming a lesser branch of government in fact as well as action) without any benefit.

Secondly, as Trump is already hurt by his first capitulation, some of them may find that they are motivated to move against him. The RNC is worried about a primary challenge and this will exacerbate things along the wrong axis.

Reason 2: The House Always Wins

Baby Trump grew up in a world where The House was shamelessly controlled by Devin Nunes and Paul Ryan. He never had to face the fury of a Speaker Scorned. That's no longer the case. It's true that Pelosi could hurt herself by overplaying her hand--right? If she looks like she won't cooperate or is too eager to impeach, investigate, or insult she risks blowback.

The National Emergency scenario, though, gives her virtually weapons-free clearance to engage however she wants. He's going after the constitutional power-of-the-purse on the flimsiest possible platform (a "national emergency" for which the solution will take years to build--even without challenges to the authority to start it in the first place). This is a war Trump doesn't want.

Reason 3: Mueller Bombs Incoming

We don't know what evil lurks in the heart of the Mueller Final Report--but The Omnivore thinks Trump can guess and that it--collusion or no--isn't good. When that report lands, Trump will need all his strength and all his allies to try to worm his way out of it. Between the House in Democratic hands and Barr being a long-time personal friend of Mueller, Trump can't rely on his personal juice to shut it down. Depending on how bad it is, he will want to have the full and united support of his media, Republican Senators, and the more liminal parts of his base. Doing the National Emergency Shuffle jeopardizes all of these.

So What Happens?

You gotta wait it out with the rest of us--but if Trump, in three weeks, gets dog-walked again by Nancy Pelosi, The Omnivore predicts a -Popcorn Level Event.- Be sure to tune in!