Open It Up!

The cries are coming--for America to get back to business. Trump has spoken: LIBERATE MICHIGAN! The right has come to the conclusion: shutdowns don't really help anything at all! The disease is unstoppable--we might as well all get it!

 The Omnivore has tried to find out what, exactly, these people mean--what do they want, exactly. Oh, what they say they want is: everything is back open--no restrictions--and then people practice hygiene and social distancing and go about their business . . . as normal . . . or something.

The theory is that once enough people get it (that number is 60-80% according to most epidemiologists) there will be enough people immune to make the viral spread unlikely and thus, it is safe for us to go about our business. Okay. Right.

They further believe that for "young people" this is really no problem at all: it kills about .2% of the young-uns. Well, that's true--but the flu kills about .006% of the young-uns (25-34). That's a lot higher.

Also, and worse, right now there are effective treatments for the flu. There aren't great treatments for COVID-19. This means that if the health care system is operating "at load" (forget 'overload') you may not get great life-saving care: You might die unnecessarily.

Also, right now, we think maybe 4% of California might have antibodies--or, at least, people in Santa Clara. What's the plan to get 56% more infected? The good news on that front is that it's fucking hyper contagious. It's also pretty dormant--it looks like about 50% of healthy young people can catch it--and spread it--but not show any symptoms at all . . . yet.

So what does this mean . . . exactly?

Well, what these people are calling for is a lifting of restrictions that will let people do what they feel safe with, which will get the economy back in action again.

Right?

Well . . . uh . . . no. This is happening right now in several Nordic countries--Sweden specifically. What's going on there?

1. Their economy is crashing. It might not be as bad as it is here (or maybe it is?) but it's still plummeting. The estimation is a 4% contraction similar to the great recession. Despite the "life goes on as normal," theaters are 90% empty.
2. Their death rate is higher per capita than their neighbors--and higher than ours. Now, granted, they aren't exactly dying in the streets . . . yet . . . but if you're trying to keep people alive this isn't a great strategy.
3. Fear of COVID-19 is rising in Sweden: Their death-rate is far higher than their neighbors: 118 per million vs. 55 in Denmark and 13 in Finland. There is fear it's getting worse and there may be stricter measures on the horizon.

So is Sweden the model we want? Well, it's the model the open-it-up-NOW people want and from what we are seeing it may be a really, really big mistake.  It's also, how does The Omnivore says this--uhm--stupid.

Stupid? We're Saving The Economy, Omnivore!

Uh--uhhhh--right. Sure you are. Except you don't know that. The reason this is stupid is because there is a whole fuck-ton of stuff we don't know about COVID-19. 

"So what?" you say, indignant. "It's a virus. We've seen these before!"

Yeah. We have. But here's the thing, sparky, there are a couple of signs that this might be one of the bad ones. What does The Omnivore mean:

1. The Second Wave Factor. Just because you "beat the virus once" doesn't mean it stays beaten. It's really, really easy for more infected people to come in when you relax things and then it spreads again. Because of the nature of it, without a TON of testing in place . . . it's really hard to track or get a jump on.
2. How long would antibody immunity last? We don't know. COVID-19 is similar to the previous SARS disease so we're hopeful that antibody immunity lasts 2-4 years . . . but it might last as little as 9 months. In fact, it might not even last that long. We don't know. Thus the idea that "you've had it--so you're good" isn't ridiculous but it also isn't air-tight. Until we have a working, tested vaccine . . . it won't be.
3. The Wonder Drugs Aren't All That Great. The Trump-touted chloroquine drugs have killed a bunch of people (no, not the fish tank guys--although The Omnivore thinks they do count). There are some promising treatments on the horizon but optimism isn't a replacement for scientific testing and that will take time. Until there is a solid treatment plan for COVID-19, the disease is simply more dangerous than it "needs to be." That is: some people exposed now will die when later, they would not.

Okay--So What Does All of This Mean?

What it means is this: we need a real plan to get us through this mess. This plan needs to include-

1. A full-court press to ramp up all kinds of testing. The administration has just plain lied and lied and lied about this. There is no good plan in place for it. There are all kinds of issues (such as some labs not having the chemical reagents and others having excess capacity for testing that is not being used).
2. A solution for the economic interim. During the Great Recession people with reduced hours could get some unemployment benefits for a little while. After that, though, the GOP would do more. We aren't doing that now at all. Thus, when people get laid off they go to full unemployment which further burdens the systems but also separates them from the company so that when something is lifted, it's harder to staff back up. People got one check--most people--well, some. It looks like going further is a major battle.
3. A solution for voting in November. Yes, The Omnivore wants Trump out of office. Yes, the Trumpster would rather not have an election with mail in ballots--but part of the administration's responsibility is to American democracy. Trump certainly doesn't care about that--but you should.
4. A coordinated response for states. Having states bid against each other and run massive deficits is an abdication of duty and creates situations where, for example, on some people get tested because it would require infusions of federal money to test more. The administrations failure to have a coordinated response with states is catastrophic here.

In short, we're not half-way through this. We don't have a plan, and the people who want to Open-It-Up are basically calling for action . . . but have absolutely zero intention of bearing the responsibility for  what could be a really big mistake.