An Omnivorous Prediction! No Debates

 The Omnivore, as a rule, does not make predictions--this is because making predictions implies that either The Omnivore thinks he knows something you don't and is f'ing sure of it--or that The Omnivore is putting credibility on the line as a gamble.

The Omnivore is not, as they say, a betting man.

But, in the interest of making a provocative point The Omnivore will make a prediction: There will be no presidential debates this time. Trump and Biden will not face off.

Why?

Well, there could be a lot of reasons--of course--but The Omnivore will lay out his thinking.

1. Fear of a Biden Planet

Trumpaloos believe that Biden is demented and will fall apart on any debate stage he can manage to be stood up on. However, as Trump might believe that, his advisers probably know better. Trump  might manage to do okay in a debate vs. Biden but if Biden isn't literally a drooling invalid then Trump's credulous base will be in for the shock of their lives. Sure, they'll claim Trump won--but seeing Biden--if he looks cognizant of where he is--if he isn't what the super-cuts of his gaffes show?

They're going to be horrified. The bar for them has been laid on the floor and if Biden stumbles over it--much less hops--it'll be a disaster.

2. Fear of a Pushup Contest (or a Cognitive Test)

Even if Biden has alzheimer's he is, we believe, in decent physical condition. He certainly thinks he is. Trump claims he dominated the intelligence test. That, by itself, is a red flag. And we know, from previous interactions that Biden is quick to challenge people to do pushups or whatever. What if Biden challenges Trump to identify a rhino on stage and Trump, bamboozled, points at Marco Rubio or something?

Disaster. 

Basically, we know Biden is willing to lay down a challenge. We know Biden can probably out-pushup Trump. We suspect Biden might be able to match or even best Trump on the cognitive test. Both of these would be a bad risk for Biden but a lethal risk for Trump if he accepted and lost.

We have little reason to think that Biden is cognitively FAR better than Trump--but even an arm-wrestling match would be dangerous.

3. Can't Start, Won't Start

If there's something Trump WON'T do it's prepare for a debate. Now, true: he did not prepare for the debates in the GOP cluster-fuck--and he did fine--but: he was speaking to a base that hungered for shameless racism. He was speaking to a base that burned with petulant teenaged greviance.  Trump was the most absurd candidate for a base that wanted a burn-it-down guy.

That's not the case here: America is burning (Trump delivered on American Carnage). In this case he's going to be going against a Biden who now has a track record to hit him on with moderators that will ask him questions he won't be able to bullshit is way out of.

Sure, he might pivot to talking points--but with an actual adversarial opponent on the stage--1-on-1, he can get his answers made fun of in real time. This is going to be way different from any debate he has been in before. Against Hillary he had no record. Against Biden? He'll have nowhere to hide.

The Omnivore predicts there is no up-side to this for Trump (at this point) and the debates? They simply do not happen.