The Santorum Percent Solution

As Rick Santorum erupts to the head of the Not-Romney pack something interesting has happened with the dialog: it has run into an unlikely iceberg: Contraception.

The dust-up is over this: Obamacare requires all employers to pay for and provide free access to contraception in their healthcare. This is at odds with the Catholic church and so ... Outrage. The rhetoric has gone up to 11:

“In imposing this requirement, the federal government is violating a First Amendment right that has stood for more than two centuries. And it is doing so in a manner that affects millions of Americans and harms some of our nation's most vital institutions," Boehner said. "If the president does not reverse the [Health and Human Services] Department’s attack on religious freedom, then the Congress, acting on behalf of the American people and the Constitution we are sworn to uphold and defend, must."

Competing polls argue about whether or not "most Americans" support this move (Rasmussen says 60% don't support it, the other polls argue about 60% of the people checked do). The church has decide to "compromise" on the issue:

That means removing the provision from the health care law altogether, he said, not simply changing it for Catholic employers and their insurers. He cited the problem that would create for "good Catholic business people who can't in good conscience cooperate with this."

That means nobody gets free access to contraception!

The candidates have seized this, declaring it a war on religion and, even the generally let's-not-talk-about-my-religion-Romney is rushing to its defense saying that the government is requiring religious organizations to violate their consciences (remember: corporations are people to, my friends--they do have consciences! I wonder what Bain's was).

Why Is This Interesting?
It's interesting for two very, very important reasons.

The First Reason: Santorum Rising
The first is that timing wise a social issue--especially related to sex--could not be better for Santorum. For one thing, Romney is on the wrong side of the issue historically speaking (just as, historically speaking he is on the wrong side of every issue now-a-days). But for another thing, contraception has been a topic that Santorum has, well, played with.

He famously said that states should have (or just have) the right to outlaw birth control.This is a 3rd-rail type thing and, when Romney was asked about it during a debate he famously refused to play ("Why are we even talking about this!?"). It appears "Mostly True" that 98% of Catholic women use birth control and, if so, (this article notes that growing up, the author noted that her Catholic family--and the ones she knew--had a relatively limited number of kids) then you'd think that, no matter how people poll, most women would support it.

This list of panelists aren't so sure. The argument ranges from Constitutional (can the government refuse money to a religious institution that is just practicing its beliefs) to pragmatic (every minute the Republicans don't spent talking about the economy they're going to lose to Barack Obama).

However: one thing is for sure this is Santorum's moment (he just won three states in a surprise upset) and this is Santorum's issue. If there was ever an issue for a hard-right Catholic to get behind? He's the man to do it. Whatever cred he doesn't have on fiscal conservativism (pro-union, pro-welfare, etc.) he's always been dead-center in the social category.

The Second Reason: The Third Rail
We just saw Planned Parenthood go up against the Komen Foundation with immediate and messy fallout. The blowback on Komen's decision to cut off funding to PP was harsh, highly visible, and telling. Abortion, not to mention contraception, is under the umbrella of Women's Issues and so a player in that space (Breast Cancer is, yeah, also pretty much a Women's Issue) is going to feel the heat there. They did.

If Team Obama is playing this carefully they might be able to both improve Santorum's chances and, if they really do own the mindshare, burn him with it. This would be an "11-dimensional chess" style maneuver but it's just possible that Obama's take on this--assuming he stands behind it--will pit Catholics against what their church says--and what it does.

I suspect that most American Catholics do use birth control--simply because they don't seem to have very large families (which would be very hard to support). According to Pew Research Catholics tend to pretty much split their vote (although the GOP wins white Catholic voters pretty conclusively). If this is so, maybe Obama is stronger than the polling suggests--if American Catholics are going and quietly voting for pro-choice democrats (remember: Obama did say he would work to bring down the abortion rate--something that, well, this would do) perhaps the pool of support for this is larger than the rhetoric would suggest.

What Do I Think?
I'm admittedly unsure where the smart money goes in this situation. I don't think the economy willl be good long enough to make it to November so I don't think this issue is going to carry all that far. However, if it dings the president with Catholics and improves Santorum's odds it'll be felt well into March will may be enough to hurt Romney further with Super Tuesday.

I bet Rick Perry, who was mocked for criticizing Obama's "War on Religion," is feeling alternately pretty smug and pretty pissed off right now!