Saturday, August 11, 2012

It's Ryan!

Romney has picked Ryan for his VP, apparently informing the other also-rans last night by phone. Apparently no one knew.

EVERYONE applauds this! Republicans are thrilled! But so are the Democrats ... Nate Sliver tweets:
I think Ryan pick (if rumors true) indicates bearish view from Romney campaign. Not a pick you make if you think you're ahead.
Bipartisan support: Achieved!

The Daily Kos (super-left) servers crashed under the load of people cheering. MediaMatters (left) releases a 190 page opposition research file you can read here. So far as I skimmed there's nothing alarming ... except, you know, the Ryan Budget.

What Does It Mean?
This is a high risk, high reward strategy which fires up the base but brings entitlement reform (cutting welfare for under 55) into stark relief. If you remember the Throw Grandma Off A Cliff advertising campaign ( ... that worked) you remember why Ryan's a risk.

On the other hand, he's smart, articulate, and charismatic. He was the pick that wouldn't overshadow Romney (Christie) but wouldn't bore the base (the other two P's).

What Do I Think?
I wrote in 2008, the day after McCain picked Sarah Palin "If this is how John McCain is gonna play it, Obama better bring his A-Game." I agree that a campaign that was clearly ahead wouldn't bring on someone who places a potential threat to Florida--a super-key swing state which is stuffed with retirees  who don't like hearing about entitlement reform and won't spend the time to figure out if it actually applies to them.

On the other hand, Romney needed a bump and he's going to get one with Ryan. Like McCain, in 2008, it consolidates the base in a way that, it seems, Romney wasn't going to all by himself. I think it's a good pick for Romney who shows he's in it to win it.

The other thing I think is that Romney's "hear the VP first" application was a total bust. I didn't download after determining that it asked for personal information (which, you know, is fair)--but I have to admit I did want to know first.

Well, Twitter knew first. And AP even announced it first. The new world's eco-system of information is not just on a 24hr cycle--it's impossible to control. Tweets about secret service cars at Ryan's house and inside information leaking penetrated my feed. I was sure it was Ryan before I went to bed.

This morning? The only blog I could find talking about it was Powerline--give the others a few minutes though. Twitter is fast.

Update: The markets are also fast. PredictWise betting markets show 10% drop in Romney's chances in Florida this morning ...

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