The FBI Primary Ends

Hillary Takes Her First Major Action Against Prison Over-Crowding

The dust has not yet settled over the FBI Primary and already the flames of opinion are leaping ever higher. We'll have to wait to see how this all plays out--but here are some immediate observations:

Comey to Republicans: PSYCH!

Having watched the briefing, The Omnivore has decided that Comey could teach M. Night Shyamalan a thing or two about surprise twist endings. For about 18 minutes of the 20 minute briefing, The Omnivore was fucking convinced charges were coming. So were people on Twitter. The sudden 'reverse' probably felt like an absolute betrayal to everyone desperately hoping for an indictment recommendation. The salt, it was rubbed in the wound!

Instant Expert--Just Add Opinion

Zero time was wasted in declaring the FBI investigation bogus (by the right). Oh, sure, a bunch of expert observers figured there wouldn't be charges--but what do experts know? Also: Internet Lawyers decided that the presence of secret emails on the server were plainly illegal--so once that was established--months ago--a decision to indict was a given. 

When it turns out that's not actually the case people were baffled. The Omnivore doesn't have a lot of sympathy for that approach (The Omnivore was wrong too--and was wrong about the SCOTUS ObamaCare decision--but is willing to accept that Comey and the SCOTUS judges might know more about their business than The Omnivore does. Maybe.)

The Cover-Up Is Always Better Than The Investigation

If The Omnivore has little respect for Instant Experts, he has less for people who claimed they'd be satisfied with the FBI's investigation and then were not. The #Benghazi Pattern: a final(?) report with No New Evidence that doesn't come to the preferred conclusion is what all these people said they were asking for. What they really wanted was the FBI or Trey Gowdy or whoever to come up with some new evidence that would sink their target. The idea that there was nothing new to find just means the cover up was deeper.

This is bullshit conspiracy theory thinking and it's what got the GOP into all kinds of trouble in the first place.

It's Inconsistent!

If everyone is an expert on the specific statutes on handling classified data, they are even more expert on past case-law. Everyone has a cite of a case where someone else went down for EXACTLY THE SAME THING--JUST NOT AS BAD. Of course, when you look at these examples, you discover that they are not, in fact, the same thing. It's almost like there were different cases here or something. Hard to figure out.

Of course when you start you reasoning with the outcome you want and work backwards, you're going to create a chain of logic that justifies your position rather than the other way around.

We'll Get 'Em Next Year!

Don't believe it's over. Comey's going to be called to testify before congress. There's the investigation into the Clinton Foundation--that one really has teeth. The lawsuit against the DNC is going to overturn her Primary Victories and get her convicted of Voter Fraud. Basically? This never stops. The Omnivore remembers back when it was horrible Democrats who kept leveling lawsuits against Sarah Palin, forcing her to courageously resign from office half way through her term. 

It's almost like Clinton might've used a personal server because she knew they were out to get her.

Almost.

The Bernie Meltdown

Sanders is staying in the race until the convention. His Die Hard Miracle (the F-B-I) didn't come through but so what? His partisans are more convinced than ever that Hillary is guilty and it looks like Sanders is enough of a sore loser not play ball with the party. His behavior is Exhibit A in why (a) you should be weary of letting Independents run for your party nomination and (b) you don't want open primaries. An independent who has little interest in the party itself is like having a poker player who, for some reason, doesn't have to ante up sitting at the table: they provide threat and personal gain--but have relatively little skin in the game.

This Is Bad For Hillary

There were several--several--think pieces that went into how bad this was for Clinton. She was, after all, accused of extreme carelessness with national security. The Omnivore thinks: Balderdash. Firstly, the lack of conviction, even with the scolding, is all that will matter in a couple of weeks (maybe less). Secondly, Trump's ability to capitalize on it is limited (he spent yesterday praising Saddam Hussein and, the day before that, defending his re-tweeting of Alt-Right racist material). 

If Trump were another--perhaps any other--GOP candidate this would, in fact, be bad for Hillary. As it is, it's good. Great even. If Trump were, in fact, any other candidate, he'd already be beating Clinton. Right now, his numbers--and hers--are priced in right now. Nothing changed yesterday other than the threat of a serious campaign-ending lawsuit evaporated.

Conclusions

As far as The Omnivore is concerned, the GOP has built its strategy on conspiracy theory, sand, and clouds. Their maneuvers have more or less been to hope for the worst and prepare for the best. They needed to do it the other way around.