Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Trump Tax Returns?

Trump's campaign chair has announced that Trump will not release his tax returns. At all. He will not release them in a house. He will not release them with a mouse. He will not release them on TV. He will not release them for all to see.

Would he, could he, in a tent? The IRS audit does not prevent!

Would he, could he, for Hillary's? Her GS transcripts would cover the fee!

But he won't.

Why Not?

Here are some theories:

  1. Russian interests. It would add fuel to the fire that he's a Russian stooge. Problem: Would that show up in his personal tax returns? Unlikely.
  2. He's po. Mark Cuban thinks he's a lot less wealthy than he said he is. If he loaned money to himself from the campaign then lawsuits could maybe pierce the corporate veil and go after him personally. Bad!
  3. Un-popular expenditures: did he give money to Planned Parenthood? To the mob? To . . . Hillary (like last year?). Who knows?
  4. Other: what if he's cheating or something? Who knows? Maybe he gave nothing to charity?

How Does This Play?

Someone Left The Irony On

Trump's advantages here are shamelessness and being so "target rich" that it's unclear how to divide up your fire. The Omnivore assesses, however that as Trump has actually pledged to release his tax returns before the elections, he has a specific weakness in that he has pledged to do this and may be successfully pressured to provide a reason why he does not. 

This will not likely shake loose his supporters--but it may limit independents that are leaning towards him. 

The theory that whatever is in there is damaging is compelling at this point. It would, of course, be political malpractice not to pursue it.

What About Hillary's Speech Transcripts?

Hillary gave a lot of speeches to places like Goldman Sachs--where she, allegedly, said the kinds of things a Managing Director for the firm would say. The Omnivore has heard these kinds of speeches at the same  kind of organization. With Sanders out of the race, the damage the speeches can do is probably limited. If what we have heard is true, it's her playing kissy-face with the big financial institutions. 

That's not good for a lot of her voters--but it may not rise to the level of being worth 1/10th of your claimed net-worth--or mixing money in a way that provides a weak-point. Of course Hillary has her own exposure on being a corporate stooge so it might be a standoff with Trump on his taxes and Hillary on her speeches.

The Omnivore estimates that on the whole the damage is probably worse for Trump than Hillary.

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