Sunday, December 31, 2017

On Obama and Iran

Right now we are seeing:

  1. Rising protests in Iran (albeit apparently poorly covered by the media if Twitter is to be believed).
  2. A situation where Trump is tough on Iran--at least pretty tough.
  3. A lot of anger by conservatives directed at Obama for (a) bribing Iran into the nuclear deal and (b) not being tough enough on Iran either during the protests (previously) or geopolitically in general.
  4. This includes, apparently, letting crime fund Iranian proxies in order to get his nuclear deal.
What The Omnivore Thinks

If we wind up in a WMD exchange with North Korea people--the world--but especially conservatives reprimanding Obama for either not going in to support the Green Revolution or for bending over backwards to get the nuclear deal signed (including, yes, bribing them, allowing their practices to go unchecked, etc.) will get an object-lesson in what happens if a country with nuclear capacity is attacked.

It will be, according to the current admin's experts unthinkable.

This is what Obama was trying to prevent with Iran. Was he right to do it? The Omnivore has no idea--but he had better access to intel than The Omnivore or most of his critics do. 

Here's What You Need To Know

Firstly, Iran isn't Iraq or North Korea--they are far more sophisticated militarily than Iraq was. They are far closer to the nexus of global petrol-trade than North Korea is. They can do damage to America and American interest on a global scale in a way North Korea cannot.

Secondly, there was no good battle plan for taking out their nuclear capacity. It is dug in deep in Qom. It is hardened. Pieces of it are hard to locate. An attack would require, essentially, nuclear weapons or a land invasion. Both are unthinkable in terms of American doctrine. There wasn't a good military solution and they were definitely getting closer and closer to a bomb.

Thirdly, Obama--as little a friend of Israel as most conservatives think he was, did two things to help Israel against Iran. The first was the Iron Dome defense system--which was pricey. He didn't even suggest they pay for it and then back off. The second was Stuxnet. If you don't know what that is, it's the co-developed computer cyber-weapon that wrecked Iranian centrifuges. The extent of the damage it did is hard to determine--but it may have cost them 2 years.

Fourthly, the Nuclear Deal is, according to nuclear experts, pretty good. The Omnivore knows it doesn't seem that way--but apparently to be a nuclear expert you have to go to school and shit. Who knew?? So, like, according to people who have studied this, it can actually act as a preventative measure--even if not 100%--against Iran acquiring nukes.

There may be a reason Trump hasn't torn it up yet.

So, today, so far as we know, Iran doesn't have nukes.

If they did, the result would be what we might see in North Korea and Asia-Pacific.


So when you're upset with Obama for how he dealt with Iran, The Omnivore hears you bro--but just know that whatever it is you're asking for--it tilts the balance further in the direction of the unthinkable than what he did do.

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