Because You Gotta Have Faith-faith-f a i t h

The Omnivore has noted that the faith in Donald Trump, among his believers, seems like something of a religious artifact. Do they like him because of things in evidence? Or do they like him because he represents something that, while not real in the tangible sense, gives them hope?

A Trump-Supporter claimed he was praising the good--and more or less not too concerned about the bad in Trump's presidency. This is also the guy who thinks Candace Owens represents something good for race relationships--but leaving that aside, at least for now, The Omnivore asked for 3 examples of each--the good--and the bad--on which this guy had founded his faith.

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

The Good:

1) Recalibrating trade towards free trade on almost every continent particularly w/ China. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-plot-road-map-to-resolve-trade-dispute-by-november-1534528756 … 

2) Successful funding (in pieces) and current building of border wall (campaign promise) https://nyti.ms/2GoGriT

3) Renewed disdain for the practices of the Middle East generally. https://www.cfr.org/project/us-interests-greater-middle-east …. and https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39602782 …
The Bad:

1) He's playing a close to the chest game with Russia. It could backfire, particularly with his domestic support. https://nyti.ms/2MCSyLz

2) People think he is a bigot generally (pick a news company besides Fox) 

3) His approach to climate change

What do we make of these? Are the good ones real reasons for faith that Trump will MAGA? Are the bad ones really digs at Trump--or what? What does this mix tell us?

The Good Place

For the good ones, The Omnivore wants to know: (a) what do these things tell us about Trump? and (b) what do these things tell us about the Trump-Voter?

The Global Trade War

The global trade war is a bold move on Trump's part and it does, in fact, have some potential for success. Firstly, China (and Iran) have a very specific kind of dictatorship in place: one that promises fewer rights in return for economic success. If you damage the economic success, which tariffs (and sanctions) can certainly do, you can impact the regime in ways that carry less of a kinetic risk than military force.

Trump, however, isn't just targeting enemy dictatorships--he is targeting everyone and all at once. This is almost defitionally a bad strategy: we are the world's largest economy--but the outcome the Trump-voter wants (massive trade improvements) are hardly guaranteed and the less we focus, the less powerful our weaponized economy becomes.

So: Does this Trump-supporter like the global trade way because he approves of a bold move which only Trump could take (imagine if Obama had tanked a year of soybean yields) and which shows potential success (reason based)? Or is he counting chickens that have not yet hatched (faith based)?

Analysis: Faith Based

He gigged Trump for playing risky with Russia--but here, Trump is a success? Not just for China--but for the whole world?

No. This guy has already clocked in a win for Trump--a win that, right now, is in no way certain--and a win he hasn't earned.

The Border Wall

This guy liking the border-wall seems a little incongruous: does he believe the Fox-News fantasy that immigrants are destroying our nation? Does he not realize that an arena full of white people chanting "Build The Wall" (and then "Lock Her Up") is Trump playing to our worst natures? The answers are "kinda-yes"--and "no"--as The Omnivore has seen his other (non Omnivore-directed) tweets.

No, he lauds Trump for "promises kept"--a safe (cop-out?) way to avoid the ugliness surrounding the wall as a concept while still cheering it.

So--is Trump actually keeping his campaign promise? Uh . . . no. Is The Omnivore taken-in by fake news? Just going with the MSM's negative-spin? Or what?

• The Campaign Promise was that Mexico would pay for the wall (he was going to seize remittances--money flowing from immigrants working in the US to relatives in Mexico and use it for funding). That proved impossible. He gave up on it. Also, if he was gonna keep campaign promises what about the fanciful but-actually-good promise of replacing the ACA with something better?
• Trump's "Start-Of-The-Wall" only covers replacement fencing and minimal new construction. It doesn't build anything like his concrete examples. Obama fulfilled more of this "promise" than Trump has. Does the Trump supporter understand this? Probably at some level--but, of course, he lauds Trump not for the literal non-achievement--but for the symbolic one: a bold statement that Americans in big arenas don't really like Mexicans.
• Is Trump Gonna Build That Wall? There's no sign of it. He was a-gonna shut down the gubbmint to force Democrats to allocate funding. We'll see how that goes.

Analysis: Faith Based

The idea that Trump will succeed in his Wall-Quest is anything but certain given that key Republicans (that is Republicans in border states) don't want it. That he has given up on the promise to Make Mexico Pay For It.

That the success that the Trump voter cites isn't anything like the actual promise (of a big beautiful wall).

Trump Being Aggressive In The Middle East

This one is boggling. The Trump-Voter's examples were bombing Assad--something accomplished little, had no follow-up, and was designed to make a statement without costing any real damage. Okay--Trump proved he doesn't like pictures of kids suffering chemical weapons strikes. He also praises Trump pulling out of the Iran deal in favor of more aggressive actions.

Firstly, none of this "comes together." Trump is doing things to increase tensions in the middle east (moving the embassy) that have little value other than symbolic value. He is great friends with Saudi Arabia who is responsible for a lot of "practices" (that we should disdain) in the middle east. He is doing his best to hand Syria over to Assad and give Russia what it wants there.

Is this something we should praise? Is this something Trump has actually "done good on?"

Analysis: Incoherent

The Omnivore approves of the air strikes and would like to see more. A no-fly zone over Syria would be good (or would have been if he'd done it when elected). But no--he didn't deliver any kind of blow to the regime. Trump's Iran strategy might work--but it also might not and we don't have any reason to think one way or the other yet. 

In other words, this guy likes Trump's hodgepodge of actions for either symbolic reasons or because he believes, faithfully, that Trump will win--but he hasn't yet.

The Badness

What about the bad things?

Risky Russians

Here is an image of weak-on-Russia headlines:

There are more--but you've gotta stop somewhere. The fact that our Trump-Voter's position on this is that it's a "risky game" ignores the possibility that Trump is just plain weak on Russia--and the not-non-existent possibility that Trump is actually somehow criminally in bed with Russia.

Analysis: Faith Based

He is right to worry about it--but he needs to consider that his faith that Trump is trying to do the right things has no real evidence behind it.

Trump's Racism / Bigotry

Yes, it is a bit unfortunate that a lot of people think Trump is a racist or bigot. It's strange how that just randomly happens, isn't it? The fact that the high command of the armed forces felt the need to put out a statement that the military doesn't accept racism right after Trump's Charlotte "fumble" is clearly because . . . :: checks notes :: some white supremacists were found in the service and had nothing to do at all with Trump leaving everyone aghast at his speech.

So is Trump achieving his racist reputation or, is it being thrust upon him by an adversarial media? 

Analysis: Faith Based

Well, consider that the barrier to determining this basically lies in whether you think Trump deserves the benefit of the doubt for a whole lot of shit. If you believe in your heart that he's not, no-way, no-how a racist then everything he does is either in need of very careful parsing or just clumsy--or just a slam-job.

If you are unsure as to whether / how racist he is then at very least it is obvious he cannot / will not 

clean his act up and tell the neo-nazis he doesn't want their votes and to stop wearing his goddamn gear or shouting his name at black / latino kids. 

Environmental Policy

 If you are upset that the guy who called climate change a Chinese hoax, stripped all climate data from government web sites, and hired an incredibly corrupt EPA head to undo all climate stuff--including the symbolic gesture of pulling out of the Paris Accord . . . 

Uh . . . what the fuck is wrong with you?

Analysis: WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU??

Conclusions

The Omnivore is, obviously, pretty sure that Trump hasn't made any big good moves yet--and is certainly unsure that he will. As to the "could his stuff turn out okay"? Well, considering that there is a combination of potentially actually good things (reining in the Chinese, maybe pushing Iran to a significant change) and a bunch of bad things (looking like a Russian stooge, having a Global Trade War instead of a targeted one), and being unable to take a clear stand on racism for . . . some reason (mysterious!!) this obviously seems pretty faith based.

The Omnivore, though, wants to end on a note that didn't come up: North Korea.

The True Believer thought that:

1. Trump was a Great Man for having the summit
2. Trump made a Big Play at the summit
3. Trump had lined up a Bunch of Good Stuff to come
4. Trump had a Big Triumph with The Bodies and The Hostage return

Now we can see that:

• Trump's meeting was not really a Great Man moment. It was pageantry that benefitted Kim and didn't do much else.
• There was no Big Play--the outcome was us halting readiness exercises (renamed War Games--Russia and Nork's preferred terms) and . . . nothing.
• North Korea has basically said "we're not giving up nukes" since the meeting. Trump has just kind of accepted it.
• Getting bodies back and hostages is something every other administration has done. The Norks have cheated on bodies before. They may have this time. It's a symbolic gesture--not a meaningful one.

In other words, if we are to have the Faith Based view of Trump on North Korea from before the summit we can now see that it was not founded. 

This is in the FACE of Trump declaring that everything was good and we could sleep at night now. If Trump is bullshitting you on this, the Trump Supporter should, really ask themselves:

• Did they believe the 1-4 above? Even for a bit?
• Did Trump basically lie about 2-4? Even if "just for the cameras"?
• Is this a point of evidence that Trump's 'optimism' should be taken with a big grain of salt--or is it totes diff from his promises of global free trade and getting a better Iran deal because of [ reasons you are scrambling to make up ]?

Of course we know the answers to the bullet points--but why don't Trump Supporters?