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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Holy Feakin' Carp*! Santorum Spurts Ahead!!


The Wall Street Journal calls Santorum's 3-state sweep a 'stunner!' And it was! Coming from behind to win in two caucus states and one "beauty pageant" (a non-binding caucus that was created by a failed attempt to move the Missouri caucus up--but was retraced when the RNC announced the 1/2 delegates penalty--resulting in a meaningless caucus that still cost millions of dollars to hold!!) is, well, stunning.

What's Interesting About It?
There are a few things about last night, other than the final disposition that were fascinating.

  1. Ron Paul didn't win any states. For a guy who's strength is in his caucus organization, he came out of it with no wins and is now in last place in delegates. 
  2. Romney came in third in Minnesota. That's bad--it wasn't going to be a great state for him but he was second everywhere else.
  3. Apparently turnout was uniformly lower in 2012 than 2008 (note: the source is the DNC so let's wait for the actual figures). Enthusiasm gap?
  4. Gingrich tanked pretty badly coming in last place and getting passed by Santorum in delegates (NOTE: Depending on how you count them--by CNN's count Gingirch is still ahead). Who should drop out now?
What Does This Mean?

Mostly: BAM! It's back on. That hissing sound you hear is the air coming out of Romney's I'm-Inevitable balloon. Oh, sure: Santorum has bout 2MM to his name and Team Romney has like 57MM--and, uh, the next big electoral event is going to be Super Tuesday which is a whole bunch of states primarying at once. A small-scale campaign can win caucuses with the personal touch. In primaries? It's ad-buys and air-time.

Secondly, Romney spent a lot of time talking about Obama and very little hitting Santorum and Newt (until the last two days). That's what all the commenters in the blogosphere are saying he's supposed to do. But to heck with that: expect him to negative on Santorum like a Newtron bomb.

Thirdly, there's the big CPAC meeting coming up where all four candidates will speak (I believe this year Sarah Palin opens it--which should be interesting). Expect the fur to fly. Romney really wants a knock-out there.

Finally there's the problem with Colorado: that was supposed to be the Mormon firewall with 10% of the populace being Mormons and, therefore, we'd think, Romney voters. What happened? We don't know yet.

What Do I Think?
I still think Santorum, however well he did, has a toy campaign and can't really expect to compete with Romney. Yes: he had a very good night--but, no, he's not going to get 50MM out of it. The "Sweater Vest" has very little chance in Super Tuesday which, likely, will be his last hurrah. But prove me wrong!

I also think that Newt is down but, I hope, not out: he did poorly here, yes but I think he has a better profile to go after Romney than Santorum does. He's a better bare-knuckle fighter and will say things I doubt Santorum will. Also: Santorum, now taking his turn as the Not-Romney dejour will get vetted as all the rest have. It'll be interesting to see what we find. I don't think there's scandal but I think his hard-core right-wing stances on a number of topics are going to get trotted out in high profile.

On the whole, though, as a political junkie, this is an awesome night.

* Horribly, without the euphemisms, I can say that literally!

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